TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Kwiatkowski vs Mateusz Karpiuk 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611711119811––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:16 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Kwiatkowski above · Mateusz Karpiuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 74 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Mateusz Karpiuk at 54.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 12–8 Mateusz Karpiuk Mateusz Karpiuk has won 8 of their 20 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kwiatkowski beat Karpiuk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:16What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-8 in 20
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1438 vs Karpiuk 1332
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 60% vs Karpiuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 50% vs Karpiuk 70%
Karpiuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski -1 · Karpiuk +3
Karpiuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.61 / Karpiuk 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13168923
Kwiatkowski1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 37 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it74% 29 of 39
Karpiuk2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 58 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back22% 19 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski7wins
AwayKarpiuk3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski75%6 of 8
AwayKarpiukn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski8Karpiuk2n = 10Kwiatkowski took 8 of 10
S2Kwiatkowski4Karpiuk6n = 10Karpiuk took 6 of 10
S3Kwiatkowski6Karpiuk4n = 10Kwiatkowski took 6 of 10
S4Kwiatkowski6Karpiuk2n = 8Kwiatkowski took 6 of 8
S5Kwiatkowski2Karpiuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiKarpiukKwiatkowski − KarpiukBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match44.740.0+4.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 267 vs 132 / 29943.5%44.2%116 / 267 vs 132 / 299Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.61/Karpiuk 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 15:25K. Kwiatkowski49111116113M. Karpiuk42791881
WAug 25 · 01:30K. Kwiatkowski4111811113M. Karpiuk32811491
WAug 24 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski511111117113M. Karpiuk4171351152
WAug 23 · 23:20K. Kwiatkowski331111113M. Karpiuk147250
LAug 23 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski50128911102M. Karpiuk511011117123
WAug 18 · 01:50K. Kwiatkowski5471112243M. Karpiuk5211910221
LAug 17 · 18:10K. Kwiatkowski46118511112M. Karpiuk48911114133
WAug 17 · 02:35K. Kwiatkowski391414113M. Karpiuk32121280
WAug 16 · 18:10K. Kwiatkowski48119611113M. Karpiuk4361111872
LAug 13 · 03:35K. Kwiatkowski368513101M. Karpiuk45111111123
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 21 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski1.5091181272M. Baran2.501161110113WSep 21 · 18:30K. Kwiatkowski2.2091111113A. Zmijewski1.61116561WSep 21 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski2.50111164123J. Zelezik1.50941111102LSep 21 · 16:15M. Lewczuk2.10111164123K. Kwiatkowski1.67661111102WSep 21 · 15:25K. Kwiatkowski1.57111116113M. Karpiuk2.25791881WSep 18 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski1.611311113J. Michalik2.2011370LSep 18 · 03:05K. Kwiatkowski1.6574120A. Krezel2.101111143WSep 18 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski1.901111113J. Zelezik1.809670LSep 18 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.541111116113K. Kwiatkowski2.2313551192LSep 17 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski1.50139118102A. Staniczek2.401111811123
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 21 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.40119111092M. Karpiuk2.75511812113WSep 21 · 19:20M. Karpiuk3.2561111113J. Zelezik1.33117861WSep 21 · 18:10M. Baran1.677680M. Karpiuk2.101111113LSep 21 · 16:55A. Zmijewski1.22101114113M. Karpiuk4.001241251LSep 21 · 15:25K. Kwiatkowski1.57111116113M. Karpiuk2.25791881WSep 16 · 05:05K. Rybak2.27119961M. Karpiuk1.5791111113WSep 16 · 03:55M. Karpiuk1.851111113M. Baran1.858960LSep 16 · 02:45M. Brunner1.8311311113M. Karpiuk1.81611561WSep 16 · 01:30J. Skorupa1.7111127682M. Karpiuk2.009101111113WSep 15 · 23:55J. Michalik1.621147111M. Karpiuk2.0791111133
Upcoming Matches
K. Kwiatkowski
Sep 21 · 23:10K. Kwiatkowski2.25J. Zelezik1.57—Sep 22 · 24:10K. Kwiatkowski2.38A. Zmijewski1.53—Sep 22 · 01:10K. Kwiatkowski1.73M. Lewczuk2.00—Sep 22 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski—M. Karpiuk——Sep 22 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski—M. Brunner——Sep 22 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski—M. Baran——Sep 22 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski—K. Delikatny——Sep 22 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski—P. Gesiarz——Sep 22 · 23:55K. Kwiatkowski—M. Karpiuk——Sep 23 · 24:45K. Kwiatkowski—J. Michalik——
M. Karpiuk
Sep 21 · 22:50M. Karpiuk3.75A. Zmijewski1.25—Sep 21 · 23:50M. Karpiuk2.63M. Lewczuk1.44—Sep 22 · 24:50M. Karpiuk3.00J. Zelezik1.36—Sep 22 · 01:50M. Karpiuk2.00M. Baran1.73—Sep 22 · 17:55M. Karpiuk—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 22 · 19:30M. Karpiuk—K. Delikatny——Sep 22 · 20:45M. Karpiuk—P. Gesiarz——Sep 22 · 21:55M. Karpiuk—M. Baran——Sep 22 · 23:05M. Karpiuk—M. Brunner——Sep 22 · 23:55M. Karpiuk—K. Kwiatkowski——
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