TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Miroslaw Lewczuk vs Jacek Zelezik 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161012117511811
Jacek Zelezik
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:45 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Jacek Zelezik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 92 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Jacek Zelezik at 59.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 11–16 Jacek Zelezik Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 11 of their 27 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Zelezik beat Lewczuk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:45What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Zelezik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-16 in 27
Zelezik
Correct
gap of 5 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1362 vs Zelezik 1456
Zelezik
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 40% vs Zelezik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 30% vs Zelezik 50%
Zelezik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk -2 · Zelezik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezik form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 2.10 / Zelezik 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Zelezik)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13169057
Lewczuk2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 63 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 72
Zelezik1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 186 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it96% 107 of 112
Up 1–0, closes it81% 143 of 177
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk3wins
AwayZelezik7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderZelezik leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk50%2 of 4
AwayZelezik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk4Zelezik6n = 10Zelezik took 6 of 10
S2Lewczuk4Zelezik6n = 10Zelezik took 6 of 10
S3Lewczuk5Zelezik5n = 10split evenly
S4Lewczuk3Zelezik4n = 7Zelezik took 4 of 7
S5Lewczuk2Zelezik4n = 6Zelezik took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukZelezikL − ZBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.742.1−2.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukZelezikBasisWin rate · lifetime482 / 943 vs 388 / 71751.1%54.1%482 / 943 vs 388 / 717Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikLewczuk 2.10/Zelezik 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 15:00M. Lewczuk4313117572J. Zelezik491151111113
LSep 14 · 21:20M. Lewczuk25113110J. Zelezik371311133
LSep 14 · 15:25M. Lewczuk218580J. Zelezik331111113
LSep 7 · 22:10M. Lewczuk46681111102J. Zelezik45111147123
WSep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk47591111113J. Zelezik4811119892
LSep 6 · 22:10M. Lewczuk34951281J. Zelezik43111110113
WSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk531111119113J. Zelezik4397131132
WSep 2 · 21:45M. Lewczuk331111113J. Zelezik154560
LSep 2 · 17:45M. Lewczuk551111711152J. Zelezik55861113173
LAug 20 · 23:55M. Lewczuk4017111472J. Zelezik531111812113
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 21 · 21:45A. Zmijewski1.611111113M. Lewczuk2.209780LSep 21 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.40119111092M. Karpiuk2.75511812113WSep 21 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.7312311113M. Baran2.001011651LSep 21 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10111661A. Zmijewski1.6711911113WSep 21 · 16:15M. Lewczuk2.10111164123K. Kwiatkowski1.67661111102LSep 21 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.1013117572J. Zelezik1.671151111113LSep 17 · 01:45J. Skorupa2.201112104123M. Lewczuk1.618101211102WSep 17 · 01:00M. Machelski2.3853100M. Lewczuk1.531111123LSep 17 · 24:10M. Lewczuk1.67101191182M. Baran2.10122116113LSep 16 · 22:35M. Lewczuk2.258930A. Fomin1.571111113
J. Zelezik10
WSep 21 · 23:10K. Kwiatkowski2.38781191J. Zelezik1.5311116113WSep 21 · 21:00M. Baran2.38511681J. Zelezik1.5311811113WSep 21 · 20:05A. Zmijewski1.917930J. Zelezik1.801111113LSep 21 · 19:20M. Karpiuk3.2561111113J. Zelezik1.33117861LSep 21 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski2.50111164123J. Zelezik1.50941111102LSep 21 · 16:35M. Baran2.381111113J. Zelezik1.532690WSep 21 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.1013117572J. Zelezik1.671151111113WSep 18 · 04:40A. Krezel2.604780J. Zelezik1.341111113WSep 18 · 03:55A. Staniczek3.305850J. Zelezik1.211111113LSep 18 · 01:55K. Kwiatkowski1.901111113J. Zelezik1.809670
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