TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13158986
Played Sep 20Finished
Piotr Gesiarz
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214811811––––
Dariusz Maszczynski
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:06 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timePiotr Gesiarz to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Dariusz Maszczynski below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 64 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Piotr Gesiarz at 69.5%
64 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 33–19 Dariusz Maszczynski Dariusz Maszczynski has won 19 of their 52 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Gesiarz beat Maszczynski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:06What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Gesiarz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-19 in 52
Gesiarz
Wrong
gap of 14 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1368 vs Maszczynski 1110
Gesiarz
Wrong
both rated, 258 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 60% vs Maszczynski 0%
Gesiarz
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 50% vs Maszczynski 10%
Gesiarz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz +1 · Maszczynski -8
Maszczynski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Gesiarz) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maszczynski form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 1.50 / Maszczynski 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Gesiarz)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13158986
Gesiarz1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 65 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it76% 56 of 74
Maszczynski2.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 8
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog23% won 67 of 286
Down 0–1, comes back12% 23 of 196
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 129
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGesiarz6wins
AwayMaszczynski4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGesiarz leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGesiarz83.3%5 of 6
AwayMaszczynski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz6Maszczynski4n = 10Gesiarz took 6 of 10
S2Gesiarz6Maszczynski4n = 10Gesiarz took 6 of 10
S3Gesiarz2Maszczynski8n = 10Maszczynski took 8 of 10
S4Gesiarz5Maszczynski2n = 7Gesiarz took 5 of 7
S5Gesiarz2Maszczynski1n = 3Gesiarz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGesiarzMaszczynskiG − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.036.4+2.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzMaszczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 320 vs 98 / 44946.9%21.8%150 / 320 vs 98 / 449Avg sets wonper match1.91.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.133.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GesiarzGesiarz 1.50/Maszczynski 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Gesiarz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Maszczynski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 24:35P. Gesiarz2812880D. Maszczynski361411113
WSep 19 · 18:30P. Gesiarz51121198113D. Maszczynski40106111122
LSep 14 · 16:00P. Gesiarz34115991D. Maszczynski4181111113
WSep 12 · 22:55P. Gesiarz50119612123D. Maszczynski519111110102
WSep 12 · 16:55P. Gesiarz4291111113D. Maszczynski27115381
LSep 6 · 24:35P. Gesiarz48711711122D. Maszczynski48116116143
WSep 5 · 18:30P. Gesiarz331111113D. Maszczynski187560
WAug 31 · 16:10P. Gesiarz4211119113D. Maszczynski32981141
LAug 24 · 16:00P. Gesiarz2595110D. Maszczynski351111133
WAug 17 · 16:00P. Gesiarz3711123113D. Maszczynski367101181
P. Gesiarz10
LSep 20 · 01:45P. Gesiarz4.33761191T. Kocik1.2011119113WSep 19 · 23:20P. Gesiarz1.731311113K. Malcher2.0011640LSep 19 · 22:10J. Oracz1.281111123P. Gesiarz3.5092100LSep 19 · 21:20P. Gesiarz2.108360G. Mucha1.671111113WSep 19 · 19:40P. Gesiarz3.5051111113J. Oracz1.28119991WSep 19 · 18:30P. Gesiarz1.40121198113D. Maszczynski2.75106111122LSep 19 · 17:20P. Gesiarz1.83511119112K. Malcher1.83119311133LSep 19 · 16:15T. Kocik1.221111113P. Gesiarz4.006790WSep 19 · 15:25P. Gesiarz2.004121211113G. Mucha1.73111410892LSep 15 · 22:20J. Michalik1.851111143P. Gesiarz1.8599120
D. Maszczynski10
LSep 19 · 23:45J. Oracz1.131115113D. Maszczynski5.5081380LSep 19 · 22:55D. Maszczynski4.33710111172G. Mucha1.20111278113LSep 19 · 21:45D. Maszczynski10.00411941T. Kocik1.0311511113LSep 19 · 20:05D. Maszczynski2.6311950K. Malcher1.441311113LSep 19 · 18:30P. Gesiarz1.40121198113D. Maszczynski2.75106111122LSep 19 · 17:45T. Kocik1.0381111113D. Maszczynski10.00116621LSep 19 · 16:55D. Maszczynski3.757980G. Mucha1.251111113LSep 19 · 15:50D. Maszczynski5.50811381J. Oracz1.1311811113WSep 14 · 20:00J. Cyndera1.228121151D. Maszczynski3.60111013113LSep 14 · 19:10M. Warzecha1.1291111133D. Maszczynski4.801168111
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