TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13159014
Played Sep 19Finished
Jacek Oracz
Home
1.13
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181513118––––
Dariusz Maszczynski
Away
5.50
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:16 and never touched — 87.0% is still 87.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Oracz to win
87.0%
87.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJacek Oracz above · Dariusz Maszczynski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 66 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jacek Oracz at 87.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Oracz 9–0 Dariusz Maszczynski Dariusz Maszczynski has won 0 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Oracz beat Maszczynski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:16What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.13 (83%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-0 in 9
Oracz
Correct
gap of 9 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1556 vs Maszczynski 1087
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 469 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 60% vs Maszczynski 0%
Oracz
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 80% vs Maszczynski 10%
Oracz
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +2 · Maszczynski -7
Maszczynski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Oracz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maszczynski form (0%) is below what odds imply (18%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.13 / Maszczynski 5.50
Signal prob.87% / 13%
Edge (Oracz)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13159014
Oracz1.13
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite72% won 308 of 429
Up 2–0, closes it98% 190 of 193
Up 1–0, closes it88% 249 of 283
Maszczynski5.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog23% won 67 of 286
Down 0–1, comes back12% 23 of 196
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 129
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeOracz9wins
AwayMaszczynski0wins
1 of 9 to a deciderOracz leads 9–0, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz100%6 of 6
AwayMaszczynski0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz6Maszczynski3n = 9Oracz took 6 of 9
S2Oracz7Maszczynski2n = 9Oracz took 7 of 9
S3Oracz8Maszczynski1n = 9Oracz took 8 of 9
S4Oracz5Maszczynski1n = 6Oracz took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home556%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricOraczMaszczynskiO − MBasisWins90+9in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match38.725.8+12.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczMaszczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime658 / 912 vs 97 / 44772.2%21.7%658 / 912 vs 97 / 447Avg sets wonper match2.51.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.333.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.13/Maszczynski 5.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 19 · 15:50J. Oracz4111811113D. Maszczynski30811381
WMar 23 · 19:00J. Oracz43211118113D. Maszczynski4211781152
WFeb 16 · 18:10J. Oracz3911611113D. Maszczynski29811551
WDec 1 · 18:35J. Oracz331111113D. Maszczynski163580
WNov 29 · 17:00J. Oracz43101111113D. Maszczynski27126631
WNov 22 · 21:00J. Oracz331111113D. Maszczynski154560
WNov 3 · 18:35J. Oracz4211119113D. Maszczynski26831141
WOct 27 · 19:00J. Oracz331111113D. Maszczynski239770
WOct 13 · 20:00J. Oracz4181111113D. Maszczynski24115621
J. Oracz10
WSep 20 · 01:00J. Oracz1.83117118113T. Kocik1.8391191182WSep 19 · 22:10J. Oracz1.281111123P. Gesiarz3.5092100WSep 19 · 21:00J. Oracz1.251111113K. Malcher3.758960LSep 19 · 19:40P. Gesiarz3.5051111113J. Oracz1.28119991LSep 19 · 18:55T. Kocik1.8311911113J. Oracz1.83911681WSep 19 · 18:10J. Oracz1.281411113G. Mucha3.5012680WSep 19 · 16:35J. Oracz1.30911116113K. Malcher3.4011591192WSep 19 · 15:50D. Maszczynski5.50811381J. Oracz1.1311811113WSep 19 · 02:20M. Natkaniec3.6591111111J. Oracz1.1711133133WSep 19 · 01:35O. Jedrzejowski2.35811761J. Oracz1.5011711113
D. Maszczynski10
WSep 20 · 24:35P. Gesiarz1.5012880D. Maszczynski2.501411113LSep 19 · 22:55D. Maszczynski4.33710111172G. Mucha1.20111278113LSep 19 · 21:45D. Maszczynski10.00411941T. Kocik1.0311511113LSep 19 · 20:05D. Maszczynski2.6311950K. Malcher1.441311113LSep 19 · 18:30P. Gesiarz1.40121198113D. Maszczynski2.75106111122LSep 19 · 17:45T. Kocik1.0381111113D. Maszczynski10.00116621LSep 19 · 16:55D. Maszczynski3.757980G. Mucha1.251111113LSep 19 · 15:50D. Maszczynski5.50811381J. Oracz1.1311811113WSep 14 · 20:00J. Cyndera1.228121151D. Maszczynski3.60111013113LSep 14 · 19:10M. Warzecha1.1291111133D. Maszczynski4.801168111
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