TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13159641
Played Sep 20Finished
Jacek Oracz
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119711119811118
Tomasz Kocik
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomasz Kocik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJacek Oracz above · Tomasz Kocik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 96 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Tomasz Kocik at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Oracz 3–2 Tomasz Kocik Tomasz Kocik has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kocik beat Oracz 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:36What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kocik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1560 vs Kocik 1651
Kocik
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 60% vs Kocik 80%
Kocik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 80% vs Kocik 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +3 · Kocik -1
Oracz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kocik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.83 / Kocik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kocik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13159641
Oracz1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Kocik1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeOracz3wins
AwayKocik2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderOracz leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOraczn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKocik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz2Kocik3n = 5Kocik took 3 of 5
S2Oracz5Kocik0n = 5Oracz took 5 of 5
S3Oracz1Kocik4n = 5Kocik took 4 of 5
S4Oracz4Kocik1n = 5Oracz took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricOraczKocikO − KBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match42.036.4+5.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczKocikBasisWin rate · lifetime659 / 913 vs 79 / 10672.2%74.5%659 / 913 vs 79 / 106Avg sets wonper match2.52.5per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocikOracz 1.83/Kocik 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kocik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 19 · 18:55J. Oracz34911681T. Kocik4211911113
WAug 23 · 01:10J. Oracz4281112113T. Kocik331191031
LAug 22 · 19:10J. Oracz4661191282T. Kocik511181110113
WAug 14 · 23:10J. Oracz4111118113T. Kocik30491161
WAug 14 · 17:10J. Oracz47111114113T. Kocik26451611
J. Oracz10
WSep 19 · 23:45J. Oracz1.131115113D. Maszczynski5.5081380WSep 19 · 22:10J. Oracz1.281111123P. Gesiarz3.5092100WSep 19 · 21:00J. Oracz1.251111113K. Malcher3.758960LSep 19 · 19:40P. Gesiarz3.5051111113J. Oracz1.28119991LSep 19 · 18:55T. Kocik1.8311911113J. Oracz1.83911681WSep 19 · 18:10J. Oracz1.281411113G. Mucha3.5012680WSep 19 · 16:35J. Oracz1.30911116113K. Malcher3.4011591192WSep 19 · 15:50D. Maszczynski5.50811381J. Oracz1.1311811113WSep 19 · 02:20M. Natkaniec3.6591111111J. Oracz1.1711133133WSep 19 · 01:35O. Jedrzejowski2.35811761J. Oracz1.5011711113
T. Kocik10
WSep 20 · 01:45P. Gesiarz4.33761191T. Kocik1.2011119113LSep 20 · 24:10T. Kocik1.179911131G. Mucha4.5011113153WSep 19 · 22:35T. Kocik1.101111113K. Malcher6.505960WSep 19 · 21:45D. Maszczynski10.00411941T. Kocik1.0311511113WSep 19 · 20:30T. Kocik1.201112113G. Mucha4.3371060WSep 19 · 18:55T. Kocik1.8311911113J. Oracz1.83911681WSep 19 · 17:45T. Kocik1.0381111113D. Maszczynski10.00116621WSep 19 · 16:15T. Kocik1.221111113P. Gesiarz4.006790WSep 19 · 15:00T. Kocik1.2011511113K. Malcher4.33711351LSep 13 · 01:45K. Gudzik4.50111359133T. Kocik1.174111111112
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