TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13159437
Played Sep 19Finished
Tomasz Kocik
Home
1.10
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115119116––––
Krzysztof Malcher
Away
6.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:00 and never touched — 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeTomasz Kocik to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomasz Kocik above · Krzysztof Malcher below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 53 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Tomasz Kocik at 66.7%
53 points played in total.
H2H Tomasz Kocik 1–0 Krzysztof Malcher Krzysztof Malcher has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Kocik beat Malcher 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:00What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (86%)
Kocik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kocik 1663 vs Malcher 1287
Kocik
Correct
both rated, 375 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocik 100% vs Malcher 40%
Kocik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocik 90% vs Malcher 30%
Kocik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocik +6 · Malcher -1
Kocik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Kocik) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Malcher form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (15%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocik 1.10 / Malcher 6.50
Signal prob.88% / 12%
Edge (Kocik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13159437
Kocik1.10
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite77% won 52 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it100% 34 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it86% 42 of 49
Malcher6.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 28 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back18% 6 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKocik1wins
AwayMalcher0wins
Kocik leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKocikMalcherK − MBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match38.026.0+12.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocikMalcherBasisWin rate · lifetime78 / 104 vs 37 / 10175%36.6%78 / 104 vs 37 / 101Avg sets wonper match2.51.5per matchAvg pointsper match38.433.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocikKocik 1.10/Malcher 6.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.3%
Kocik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kocik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 19 · 15:00T. Kocik3811511113K. Malcher26711351
T. Kocik10
WSep 19 · 21:45D. Maszczynski10.00411941T. Kocik1.0311511113WSep 19 · 20:30T. Kocik1.201112113G. Mucha4.3371060WSep 19 · 18:55T. Kocik1.8311911113J. Oracz1.83911681WSep 19 · 17:45T. Kocik1.0381111113D. Maszczynski10.00116621WSep 19 · 16:15T. Kocik1.221111113P. Gesiarz4.006790WSep 19 · 15:00T. Kocik1.2011511113K. Malcher4.33711351LSep 13 · 01:45K. Gudzik4.50111359133T. Kocik1.174111111112WSep 13 · 01:00G. Mucha4.00871161T. Kocik1.2211116113WSep 13 · 24:10T. Kocik1.0211117183D. Maszczynski11.009611161WSep 12 · 22:35T. Kocik1.221111113J. Skorupa4.004680
K. Malcher10
LSep 19 · 23:20P. Gesiarz1.731311113K. Malcher2.0011640LSep 19 · 21:00J. Oracz1.251111113K. Malcher3.758960WSep 19 · 20:05D. Maszczynski2.6311950K. Malcher1.441311113LSep 19 · 19:20G. Mucha1.505111210133K. Malcher2.501181012112WSep 19 · 17:20P. Gesiarz1.83511119112K. Malcher1.83119311133LSep 19 · 16:35J. Oracz1.30911116113K. Malcher3.4011591192LSep 19 · 15:00T. Kocik1.2011511113K. Malcher4.33711351LSep 13 · 02:00K. Malcher3.407470C. Pawlik1.241111113LSep 13 · 24:45K. Malcher2.907930A. Zmijewski1.321111113LSep 12 · 23:35K. Malcher2.753260O. Jedrzejowski1.361111113
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