TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13159115
Played Sep 20Finished
Tomasz Kocik
Home
1.17
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9119111131315––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
4.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:47 and never touched — 81.0% is still 81.0%
Graded at full timeTomasz Kocik to win
81.0%
81.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomasz Kocik above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 82 set 4, 13-15 — our read held Tomasz Kocik at 81.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Tomasz Kocik 7–0 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 0 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Kocik beat Mucha 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:47What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Kocik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-0 in 7
Kocik
Wrong
gap of 7 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocik 1669 vs Mucha 1397
Kocik
Wrong
both rated, 273 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocik 100% vs Mucha 60%
Kocik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocik 90% vs Mucha 50%
Kocik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocik +7 · Mucha +2
Kocik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Kocik) · live re-read · sealed at 81% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocik 1.17 / Mucha 4.50
Signal prob.84% / 16%
Edge (Kocik)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13159115
Kocik1.17
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite77% won 52 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it100% 34 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it86% 42 of 49
Mucha4.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 46 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKocik7wins
AwayMucha0wins
Kocik leads 7–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocik100%5 of 5
AwayMuchan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocik5Mucha2n = 7Kocik took 5 of 7
S2Kocik6Mucha1n = 7Kocik took 6 of 7
S3Kocik5Mucha2n = 7Kocik took 5 of 7
S4Kocik5Mucha0n = 5Kocik took 5 of 5
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home571%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricKocikMuchaK − MBasisWins70+7in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match39.928.6+11.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocikMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime79 / 105 vs 150 / 29975.2%50.2%79 / 105 vs 150 / 299Avg sets wonper match2.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocikKocik 1.17/Mucha 4.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
83.8%
Kocik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 19 · 20:30T. Kocik341112113G. Mucha2371060
WSep 13 · 01:00T. Kocik3911116113G. Mucha32871161
WSep 12 · 18:55T. Kocik44111111113G. Mucha31851351
WSep 5 · 22:35T. Kocik4111811113G. Mucha27611191
WSep 5 · 15:00T. Kocik4161111133G. Mucha321164111
WAug 22 · 21:10T. Kocik43101111113G. Mucha26125451
WAug 22 · 16:50T. Kocik371111153G. Mucha2988130
T. Kocik10
WSep 20 · 01:45P. Gesiarz4.33761191T. Kocik1.2011119113LSep 20 · 01:00J. Oracz1.83117118113T. Kocik1.8391191182WSep 19 · 22:35T. Kocik1.101111113K. Malcher6.505960WSep 19 · 21:45D. Maszczynski10.00411941T. Kocik1.0311511113WSep 19 · 20:30T. Kocik1.201112113G. Mucha4.3371060WSep 19 · 18:55T. Kocik1.8311911113J. Oracz1.83911681WSep 19 · 17:45T. Kocik1.0381111113D. Maszczynski10.00116621WSep 19 · 16:15T. Kocik1.221111113P. Gesiarz4.006790WSep 19 · 15:00T. Kocik1.2011511113K. Malcher4.33711351LSep 13 · 01:45K. Gudzik4.50111359133T. Kocik1.174111111112
G. Mucha10
WSep 20 · 01:25G. Mucha1.501114123K. Malcher2.50812100WSep 19 · 22:55D. Maszczynski4.33710111172G. Mucha1.20111278113WSep 19 · 21:20P. Gesiarz2.108360G. Mucha1.671111113LSep 19 · 20:30T. Kocik1.201112113G. Mucha4.3371060WSep 19 · 19:20G. Mucha1.505111210133K. Malcher2.501181012112LSep 19 · 18:10J. Oracz1.281411113G. Mucha3.5012680WSep 19 · 16:55D. Maszczynski3.757980G. Mucha1.251111113LSep 19 · 15:25P. Gesiarz2.004121211113G. Mucha1.73111410892LSep 18 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5713115113G. Mucha2.251171181LSep 18 · 01:25K. Gudzik1.831111113G. Mucha1.834980
Upcoming Matches
T. Kocik
Nothing scheduled
G. Mucha
Sep 20 · 02:35G. Mucha3.50J. Oracz1.28—Sep 20 · 15:25G. Mucha—K. Rybak——Sep 20 · 16:55G. Mucha—A. Zmijewski——Sep 20 · 18:10G. Mucha—Z. Nocun——Sep 20 · 19:20G. Mucha—J. Skorupa——Sep 20 · 20:30G. Mucha—M. Guzik——Sep 20 · 21:20G. Mucha—K. Rybak——Sep 20 · 22:55G. Mucha—A. Zmijewski——Sep 21 · 24:10G. Mucha—M. Guzik——Sep 21 · 01:25G. Mucha—J. Skorupa——
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