TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13159119
Played Sep 20Finished
Grzegorz Mucha
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11814121210––––
Krzysztof Malcher
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:47 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Mucha above · Krzysztof Malcher below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 67 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 64.1%
67 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Mucha 7–1 Krzysztof Malcher Krzysztof Malcher has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Mucha beat Malcher 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:47What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Mucha
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mucha 1412 vs Malcher 1299
Mucha
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mucha 80% vs Malcher 20%
Mucha
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mucha 50% vs Malcher 20%
Mucha
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mucha +3 · Malcher -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Mucha) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Malcher form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMucha 1.50 / Malcher 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Mucha)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13159119
Mucha1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 90 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it100% 45 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it77% 60 of 78
Malcher2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 28 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back18% 6 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMucha7wins
AwayMalcher1wins
3 of 8 to a deciderMucha leads 7–1, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMucha100%4 of 4
AwayMalcher25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mucha4Malcher4n = 8split evenly
S2Mucha5Malcher3n = 8Mucha took 5 of 8
S3Mucha6Malcher2n = 8Mucha took 6 of 8
S4Mucha3Malcher3n = 6split evenly
S5Mucha3Malcher0n = 3Mucha took 3 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricMuchaMalcherMucha − MalcherBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match41.835.0+6.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuchaMalcherBasisWin rate · lifetime151 / 300 vs 37 / 10350.3%35.9%151 / 300 vs 37 / 103Avg sets wonper match2.01.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.333.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaMucha 1.50/Malcher 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 19 · 19:20G. Mucha515111210133K. Malcher521181012112
WAug 30 · 01:25G. Mucha49711118123K. Malcher39112511102
WAug 29 · 19:20G. Mucha45121111113K. Malcher26145341
WAug 15 · 21:20G. Mucha331111113K. Malcher208570
LAug 15 · 15:25G. Mucha207580K. Malcher331111113
WJul 13 · 15:50G. Mucha501110117113K. Malcher3871221162
WJun 21 · 01:45G. Mucha4111811113K. Malcher34911861
WJun 20 · 16:15G. Mucha4513119123K. Malcher3811611101
G. Mucha10
LSep 20 · 02:35J. Oracz1.281111113G. Mucha3.508470WSep 20 · 24:10T. Kocik1.179911131G. Mucha4.5011113153WSep 19 · 22:55D. Maszczynski4.33710111172G. Mucha1.20111278113WSep 19 · 21:20P. Gesiarz2.108360G. Mucha1.671111113LSep 19 · 20:30T. Kocik1.201112113G. Mucha4.3371060WSep 19 · 19:20G. Mucha1.505111210133K. Malcher2.501181012112LSep 19 · 18:10J. Oracz1.281411113G. Mucha3.5012680WSep 19 · 16:55D. Maszczynski3.757980G. Mucha1.251111113LSep 19 · 15:25P. Gesiarz2.004121211113G. Mucha1.73111410892LSep 18 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5713115113G. Mucha2.251171181
K. Malcher10
WSep 20 · 02:10D. Maszczynski2.63105110K. Malcher1.441211133LSep 19 · 23:20P. Gesiarz1.731311113K. Malcher2.0011640LSep 19 · 22:35T. Kocik1.101111113K. Malcher6.505960LSep 19 · 21:00J. Oracz1.251111113K. Malcher3.758960WSep 19 · 20:05D. Maszczynski2.6311950K. Malcher1.441311113LSep 19 · 19:20G. Mucha1.505111210133K. Malcher2.501181012112WSep 19 · 17:20P. Gesiarz1.83511119112K. Malcher1.83119311133LSep 19 · 16:35J. Oracz1.30911116113K. Malcher3.4011591192LSep 19 · 15:00T. Kocik1.2011511113K. Malcher4.33711351LSep 13 · 02:00K. Malcher3.407470C. Pawlik1.241111113
Upcoming Matches
G. Mucha
Sep 20 · 15:25G. Mucha—K. Rybak——Sep 20 · 16:55G. Mucha—A. Zmijewski——Sep 20 · 18:10G. Mucha—Z. Nocun——Sep 20 · 19:20G. Mucha—J. Skorupa——Sep 20 · 20:30G. Mucha—M. Guzik——Sep 20 · 21:20G. Mucha—K. Rybak——Sep 20 · 22:55G. Mucha—A. Zmijewski——Sep 21 · 24:10G. Mucha—M. Guzik——Sep 21 · 01:25G. Mucha—J. Skorupa——Sep 21 · 02:35G. Mucha—Z. Nocun——
K. Malcher
Nothing scheduled
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