TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krystian Kolodziej vs Dawid Michna 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Krystian Kolodziej
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711121010121517––
Dawid Michna
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:55 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeDawid Michna to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrystian Kolodziej above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 15-17
Point 94 set 4, 15-17 — our read held Dawid Michna at 57.4%
94 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Kolodziej 13–20 Dawid Michna Krystian Kolodziej has won 13 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:55What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Michna
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-20 in 33
Michna
Correct
gap of 7 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolodziej 1819 vs Michna 1882
Michna
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolodziej 20% vs Michna 40%
Michna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolodziej 50% vs Michna 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolodziej -2 · Michna -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Michna)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolodziej 2.10 / Michna 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Michna)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13169689
Kolodziej2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 64 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back16% 17 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 62
Michna1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite68% won 79 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it81% 61 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolodziej5wins
AwayMichna5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolodziej66.7%2 of 3
AwayMichna57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolodziej3Michna7n = 10Michna took 7 of 10
S2Kolodziej4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S3Kolodziej6Michna4n = 10Kolodziej took 6 of 10
S4Kolodziej7Michna1n = 8Kolodziej took 7 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolodziejMichnaK − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.841.0−1.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolodziejMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime1278 / 1895 vs 522 / 95367.4%54.8%1278 / 1895 vs 522 / 953Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichnaKolodziej 2.10/Michna 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Michna · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 10:50K. Kolodziej4581311133D. Michna4011117111
LSep 9 · 11:40K. Kolodziej4261191152D. Michna50118119113
LSep 4 · 12:05K. Kolodziej219480D. Michna331111113
WSep 3 · 10:25K. Kolodziej4411913113D. Michna398111191
LAug 27 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2811890D. Michna351311113
LAug 18 · 12:05K. Kolodziej49117912102D. Michna539111110123
WAug 17 · 12:30K. Kolodziej43101111113D. Michna39129991
LJul 15 · 14:10K. Kolodziej4411141181D. Michna4813168113
WJul 12 · 11:40K. Kolodziej3741111113D. Michna36118981
WJul 6 · 10:50K. Kolodziej4511914113D. Michna377111271
K. Kolodziej10
LSep 22 · 11:40J. Kosowski1.331111113K. Kolodziej3.256390LSep 22 · 09:40K. Kolodziej2.38101060A. Wiecek1.531212113LSep 11 · 15:25M. Olejnik1.531011811123K. Kolodziej2.38127114102WSep 11 · 14:35K. Wloczko2.251311661K. Kolodziej1.5715811113LSep 11 · 12:30J. Kuzmicz1.73111199113K. Kolodziej2.0097111182LSep 11 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.40911913113K. Kolodziej2.75118111152LSep 11 · 10:00K. Strowski2.00131111123K. Kolodziej1.731568101WSep 10 · 19:40K. Kolodziej1.731111113K. Kapik2.003960WSep 10 · 18:30K. Kolodziej1.367111111113J. Mitas3.0011713392WSep 10 · 17:20K. Kolodziej1.2861111113K. Staszczyk3.50113631
D. Michna10
LSep 22 · 09:20G. Felkel2.00118911113D. Michna1.7381111792WSep 22 · 07:45J. Braun1.7366100D. Michna2.001111123WSep 22 · 06:55M. Murawski1.6771011101D. Michna2.1011129123LSep 22 · 06:05D. Michna2.0091090A. Wiecek1.731112113LSep 22 · 04:30D. Michna1.805101161G. Felkel1.9111125113LSep 22 · 03:45J. Kosowski1.4412101211113D. Michna2.63101214882WSep 21 · 14:35M. Murawski1.7381112482D. Michna2.001181011113WSep 21 · 13:20D. Michna1.4461111113J. Kuzmicz2.63116791LSep 21 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.6712914113D. Michna2.1010111271LSep 21 · 10:50G. Felkel1.671111113D. Michna2.106880
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