TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Kosowski vs Dawid Michna 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Jakub Kosowski
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
121010121214118118
Dawid Michna
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:25 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Kosowski to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Kosowski above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 108 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Jakub Kosowski at 64.9%
108 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kosowski 25–13 Dawid Michna Dawid Michna has won 13 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:25What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kosowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-13 in 38
Kosowski
Correct
gap of 12 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosowski 1907 vs Michna 1918
Michna
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosowski 80% vs Michna 40%
Kosowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosowski 40% vs Michna 60%
Michna
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosowski +3 · Michna +2
Kosowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Kosowski) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosowski 1.44 / Michna 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Kosowski)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13169834
Kosowski1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 18)
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite67% won 273 of 410
Up 2–0, closes it95% 127 of 134
Up 1–0, closes it86% 213 of 249
Michna2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 111 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back35% 40 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKosowski6wins
AwayMichna4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKosowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosowski100%6 of 6
AwayMichna100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosowski6Michna4n = 10Kosowski took 6 of 10
S2Kosowski4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S3Kosowski6Michna4n = 10Kosowski took 6 of 10
S4Kosowski5Michna2n = 7Kosowski took 5 of 7
S5Kosowski2Michna2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosowskiMichnaK − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.338.7+2.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosowskiMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime728 / 1238 vs 520 / 94858.8%54.9%728 / 1238 vs 520 / 948Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosowskiKosowski 1.44/Michna 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Kosowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kosowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 03:45J. Kosowski5612101211113D. Michna52101214882
LAug 18 · 13:45J. Kosowski34141280D. Michna411614113
WAug 18 · 08:30J. Kosowski331111113D. Michna155820
LAug 15 · 10:00J. Kosowski548111311112D. Michna51118154133
WAug 15 · 05:40J. Kosowski331111113D. Michna249960
LJul 14 · 10:50J. Kosowski3951111572D. Michna50119811113
WJul 14 · 06:05J. Kosowski451121011113D. Michna4681112872
WJul 7 · 10:25J. Kosowski3811511113D. Michna31711851
WJul 7 · 05:15J. Kosowski4312911113D. Michna361011961
LJun 14 · 12:50J. Kosowski381091181D. Michna4112117113
J. Kosowski10
WSep 18 · 15:00A. Grela2.3811712372J. Kosowski1.538111011113WSep 18 · 14:10J. Kuzmicz2.20119101142J. Kosowski1.61711129113WSep 18 · 13:20J. Kosowski1.44111011113J. Stecyszyn2.63912791LSep 18 · 11:40J. Kosowski1.6710111111102J. Zandecki2.10128137123WSep 18 · 10:50D. Wederlich2.25811891J. Kosowski1.5711711113LSep 18 · 08:30A. Grela2.201111113J. Kosowski1.616570LSep 18 · 07:20J. Kosowski1.613118111D. Wederlich2.2011911133LSep 18 · 06:05M. Olejnik1.801111113J. Kosowski1.915690LSep 18 · 04:55J. Kuzmicz2.201111113J. Kosowski1.619980LSep 18 · 03:25J. Zandecki1.731112163J. Kosowski2.00710140
D. Michna10
LSep 22 · 04:30D. Michna1.805101161G. Felkel1.9111125113WSep 21 · 14:35M. Murawski1.7381112482D. Michna2.001181011113WSep 21 · 13:20D. Michna1.4461111113J. Kuzmicz2.63116791LSep 21 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.6712914113D. Michna2.1010111271LSep 21 · 10:50G. Felkel1.671111113D. Michna2.106880LSep 21 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.57141011123D. Michna2.2512129101WSep 21 · 07:45D. Michna2.20711911113M. Jadczyk1.6111811452LSep 21 · 06:30D. Michna2.1011961172M. Murawski1.67811117113WSep 21 · 05:15D. Michna1.401311113J. Kuzmicz2.7511560WSep 21 · 04:10G. Felkel1.807990D. Michna1.911111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Kosowski
Sep 22 · 05:40J. Kosowski1.83M. Murawski1.83—Sep 22 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.61J. Braun2.20—Sep 22 · 08:05J. Kosowski1.57G. Felkel2.25—Sep 22 · 09:00J. Kosowski1.61J. Braun2.20—Sep 22 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.57G. Felkel2.25—Sep 22 · 11:40J. Kosowski1.33K. Kolodziej3.25—Sep 22 · 12:55J. Kosowski2.00A. Wiecek1.73—Sep 22 · 14:35J. Kosowski1.44D. Michna2.63—
D. Michna
Sep 22 · 06:05D. Michna2.00A. Wiecek1.73—Sep 22 · 06:55D. Michna2.10M. Murawski1.67—Sep 22 · 07:45D. Michna2.10J. Braun1.67—Sep 22 · 09:20D. Michna1.80G. Felkel1.91—Sep 22 · 10:50D. Michna1.67K. Kolodziej2.10—Sep 22 · 12:05D. Michna2.00A. Wiecek1.73—Sep 22 · 13:20D. Michna2.10J. Braun1.67—Sep 22 · 14:35D. Michna2.63J. Kosowski1.44—
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