TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Michna vs Grzegorz Felkel 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Dawid Michna
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111012115611––
Grzegorz Felkel
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDawid Michna to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Grzegorz Felkel below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 71 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Dawid Michna at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 31–30 Grzegorz Felkel Grzegorz Felkel has won 30 of their 61 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 18h before this match
Felkel beat Michna 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:34What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Michna
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-30 in 61
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1918 vs Felkel 1918
Michna
Wrong
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 40% vs Felkel 100%
Felkel
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 50% vs Felkel 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna -1 · Felkel +5
Felkel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Michna)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Felkel form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 1.80 / Felkel 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Michna)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13169903
Michna1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 77 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it100% 34 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it81% 60 of 74
Felkel1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog35% won 30 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back18% 10 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichna6wins
AwayFelkel4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna60%3 of 5
AwayFelkel40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna5Felkel5n = 10split evenly
S2Michna6Felkel4n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S3Michna5Felkel5n = 10split evenly
S4Michna6Felkel1n = 7Michna took 6 of 7
S5Michna2Felkel3n = 5Felkel took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichnaFelkelM − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.536.4+4.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaFelkelBasisWin rate · lifetime520 / 948 vs 691 / 117054.9%59.1%520 / 948 vs 691 / 1170Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichnaMichna 1.80/Felkel 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Michna · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Felkel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 10:50D. Michna226880G. Felkel331111113
WSep 21 · 04:10D. Michna331111113G. Felkel257990
WSep 10 · 14:10D. Michna51911911113G. Felkel3411611512
LSep 10 · 07:25D. Michna48126111182G. Felkel49141167113
LSep 9 · 09:00D. Michna44111111562G. Felkel49861311113
WSep 9 · 07:45D. Michna331111113G. Felkel249780
WAug 27 · 14:10D. Michna4291111113G. Felkel32114891
WAug 27 · 07:45D. Michna3961111113G. Felkel27119251
LAug 26 · 14:10D. Michna4411681182G. Felkel46911114113
WAug 26 · 07:20D. Michna49118811113G. Felkel4591111772
D. Michna10
LSep 22 · 03:45J. Kosowski1.4412101211113D. Michna2.63101214882WSep 21 · 14:35M. Murawski1.7381112482D. Michna2.001181011113WSep 21 · 13:20D. Michna1.4461111113J. Kuzmicz2.63116791LSep 21 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.6712914113D. Michna2.1010111271LSep 21 · 10:50G. Felkel1.671111113D. Michna2.106880LSep 21 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.57141011123D. Michna2.2512129101WSep 21 · 07:45D. Michna2.20711911113M. Jadczyk1.6111811452LSep 21 · 06:30D. Michna2.1011961172M. Murawski1.67811117113WSep 21 · 05:15D. Michna1.401311113J. Kuzmicz2.7511560WSep 21 · 04:10G. Felkel1.807990D. Michna1.911111113
G. Felkel10
LSep 22 · 05:15J. Braun2.7591112113G. Felkel1.401171081WSep 22 · 03:00M. Murawski2.006830G. Felkel1.731111113WSep 21 · 14:10G. Felkel1.441111113J. Kuzmicz2.636670WSep 21 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.918101171G. Felkel1.8011128113WSep 21 · 11:40M. Murawski2.202670G. Felkel1.611111113WSep 21 · 10:50G. Felkel1.671111113D. Michna2.106880LSep 21 · 09:40G. Felkel1.7311119652M. Jadczyk2.00431111113LSep 21 · 08:30G. Felkel2.001171071A. Wiecek1.7391112113WSep 21 · 06:55G. Felkel1.73128711113M. Jadczyk2.00101111472LSep 21 · 04:10G. Felkel1.807990D. Michna1.911111113
Upcoming Matches
D. Michna
Sep 22 · 06:05D. Michna2.00A. Wiecek1.73—Sep 22 · 06:55D. Michna2.10M. Murawski1.67—Sep 22 · 07:45D. Michna2.10J. Braun1.67—Sep 22 · 09:20D. Michna1.80G. Felkel1.91—Sep 22 · 10:50D. Michna1.67K. Kolodziej2.10—Sep 22 · 12:05D. Michna2.00A. Wiecek1.73—Sep 22 · 13:20D. Michna2.10J. Braun1.67—Sep 22 · 14:35D. Michna2.20J. Kosowski1.61—
G. Felkel
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.