TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Murawski vs Josef Braun 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Michal Murawski
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611117511211––
Josef Braun
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:44 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Murawski to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Murawski above · Josef Braun below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 64 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Michal Murawski at 54.9%
64 points played in total.
H2H Michal Murawski 22–10 Josef Braun Josef Braun has won 10 of their 32 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 11:44What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Murawski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-10 in 32
Murawski
Wrong
gap of 12 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Murawski 1834 vs Braun 1844
Braun
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Murawski 0% vs Braun 40%
Braun
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Murawski 30% vs Braun 50%
Braun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Murawski -6 · Braun -2
Murawski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Murawski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Murawski form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMurawski 1.73 / Braun 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Murawski)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13169314
Murawski1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Braun2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 82 of 194
Down 0–1, comes back24% 25 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMurawski7wins
AwayBraun3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMurawski leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMurawski100%4 of 4
AwayBraun50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Murawski4Braun6n = 10Braun took 6 of 10
S2Murawski8Braun2n = 10Murawski took 8 of 10
S3Murawski6Braun4n = 10Murawski took 6 of 10
S4Murawski4Braun2n = 6Murawski took 4 of 6
S5Murawski2Braun1n = 3Murawski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMurawskiBraunM − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.236.3+2.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMurawskiBraunBasisWin rate · lifetime453 / 769 vs 508 / 97158.9%52.3%453 / 769 vs 508 / 971Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MurawskiMurawski 1.73/Braun 2.00
Miss
What we said
54.9%
Murawski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Braun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMar 10 · 12:05M. Murawski3961111113J. Braun35118791
WMar 5 · 08:35M. Murawski341111123J. Braun2358100
WFeb 26 · 16:10M. Murawski50811812113J. Braun50119111092
LFeb 26 · 09:25M. Murawski219660J. Braun331111113
WFeb 16 · 13:00M. Murawski3961111113J. Braun31115961
WFeb 16 · 06:50M. Murawski49117911113J. Braun4241111882
WFeb 8 · 12:35M. Murawski331111113J. Braun216690
WJan 21 · 13:00M. Murawski401512133J. Braun341310110
LJan 21 · 08:40M. Murawski3641110111J. Braun4511912133
LDec 14 · 11:25M. Murawski51711119132J. Braun49115711153
M. Murawski10
LSep 22 · 03:00M. Murawski2.006830G. Felkel1.731111113LSep 21 · 14:35M. Murawski1.7381112482D. Michna2.001181011113LSep 21 · 12:55M. Murawski2.2012111031M. Jadczyk1.61101312113LSep 21 · 11:40M. Murawski2.202670G. Felkel1.611111113LSep 21 · 10:00M. Murawski1.91911591A. Wiecek1.8011911113LSep 21 · 09:00M. Murawski1.73811101152J. Kuzmicz2.00116128113WSep 21 · 08:05M. Murawski1.7361111123J. Kuzmicz2.001177101WSep 21 · 06:30D. Michna2.1011961172M. Murawski1.67811117113WSep 21 · 05:40G. Felkel1.61911681M. Murawski2.2011411113LSep 21 · 04:55M. Murawski2.1011611582A. Wiecek1.67811811113
J. Braun10
WSep 22 · 05:15J. Braun2.7591112113G. Felkel1.401171081LSep 22 · 03:25J. Braun2.38111179112A. Wiecek1.53271111133LSep 15 · 14:10K. Strowski2.2011911113J. Braun1.61611961WSep 15 · 13:20T. Spanik1.67111191262J. Braun2.101391110113WSep 15 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.6781191182J. Braun2.10116113113LSep 15 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.5711711113J. Braun2.25711281WSep 15 · 09:00M. Olejnik1.73151061172J. Braun2.001312115113WSep 15 · 08:05J. Braun1.91581111113M. Miastowski1.8011119962WSep 15 · 06:30T. Spanik1.67411140J. Braun2.101113163LSep 15 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.67101111113J. Braun2.10125591
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