TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13129026
Played Sep 15Finished
Karol Strowski
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116911119116––
Josef Braun
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:31 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeJosef Braun to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKarol Strowski above · Josef Braun below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 74 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Josef Braun at 54.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Karol Strowski 15–15 Josef Braun Dead even across their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:31What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Braun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-15 in 30
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strowski 1768 vs Braun 1918
Braun
Wrong
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strowski 20% vs Braun 80%
Braun
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strowski 30% vs Braun 60%
Braun
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strowski -4 · Braun +2
Strowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Braun) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Braun form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrowski 2.20 / Braun 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Braun)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13129026
Strowski2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 78 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back30% 34 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 49
Braun1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 139 of 231
Up 2–0, closes it93% 74 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it75% 104 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrowski7wins
AwayBraun3wins
7 of 10 to a deciderStrowski leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrowski80%4 of 5
AwayBraun40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strowski5Braun5n = 10split evenly
S2Strowski5Braun5n = 10split evenly
S3Strowski4Braun6n = 10Braun took 6 of 10
S4Strowski3Braun4n = 7Braun took 4 of 7
S5Strowski6Braun1n = 7Strowski took 6 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home660%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrowskiBraunS − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.939.2+2.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrowskiBraunBasisWin rate · lifetime814 / 1400 vs 519 / 98558.1%52.7%814 / 1400 vs 519 / 985Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BraunStrowski 2.20/Braun 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Braun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Strowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 10 · 14:35K. Strowski205780J. Braun331111113
LJul 25 · 14:35K. Strowski195590J. Braun331111113
WJul 7 · 10:50K. Strowski46412811113J. Braun44111011482
WJul 3 · 14:35K. Strowski531211811113J. Braun5014911882
WJun 23 · 14:35K. Strowski521110119113J. Braun4171251162
WMay 19 · 13:10K. Strowski531011129113J. Braun45126101162
WApr 8 · 10:20K. Strowski49111179113J. Braun3544111152
WMar 17 · 15:45K. Strowski491161011113J. Braun4561112882
LMar 10 · 20:45K. Strowski4511711792J. Braun46811511113
WMar 10 · 15:45K. Strowski331111113J. Braun209830
K. Strowski10
LSep 15 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.50911118113K. Strowski2.5011491172LSep 15 · 11:40M. Olejnik1.401111113K. Strowski2.759760LSep 15 · 10:50K. Strowski2.00101090T. Spanik1.731212113LSep 15 · 09:40K. Strowski2.75471171M. Jadczyk1.4011117113WSep 15 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.57118101192K. Strowski2.25911123113LSep 15 · 07:20K. Strowski2.2091291152M. Miastowski1.611110117113LSep 15 · 06:05M. Olejnik1.36712118113K. Strowski3.00111081152WSep 15 · 04:55J. Braun1.73115581K. Strowski2.0031111113WSep 15 · 03:25T. Spanik1.73127861K. Strowski2.00101111113LSep 14 · 14:10K. Strowski1.83811101172K. Wloczko1.83116129113
J. Braun10
WSep 15 · 13:20T. Spanik1.67111191262J. Braun2.101391110113WSep 15 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.6781191182J. Braun2.10116113113LSep 15 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.5711711113J. Braun2.25711281WSep 15 · 09:00M. Olejnik1.73151061172J. Braun2.001312115113WSep 15 · 08:05J. Braun1.91581111113M. Miastowski1.8011119962WSep 15 · 06:30T. Spanik1.67411140J. Braun2.101113163LSep 15 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.67101111113J. Braun2.10125591LSep 15 · 04:55J. Braun1.73115581K. Strowski2.0031111113LSep 15 · 03:45J. Braun2.00114111062M. Olejnik1.73911612113WSep 12 · 14:35J. Braun2.101111113K. Petas1.675820
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