TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13128941
Played Sep 15Finished
Karol Strowski
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10121012911––––
Tibor Spanik
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:11 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarol Strowski above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 64 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 54.5%
64 points played in total.
H2H Karol Strowski 5–3 Tibor Spanik Tibor Spanik has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:11What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Spanik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Strowski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strowski 1792 vs Spanik 1860
Spanik
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strowski 40% vs Spanik 20%
Strowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strowski 40% vs Spanik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strowski -1 · Spanik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Spanik) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Spanik form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrowski 2.00 / Spanik 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Spanik)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13128941
Strowski2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 78 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back30% 34 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 49
Spanik1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 152 of 261
Up 2–0, closes it94% 74 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it75% 108 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeStrowski5wins
AwaySpanik3wins
4 of 8 to a deciderStrowski leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrowski75%3 of 4
AwaySpanik50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strowski4Spanik4n = 8split evenly
S2Strowski4Spanik4n = 8split evenly
S3Strowski4Spanik4n = 8split evenly
S4Strowski4Spanik4n = 8split evenly
S5Strowski3Spanik1n = 4Strowski took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricStrowskiSpanikStrowski − SpanikBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match39.541.1−1.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrowskiSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime814 / 1399 vs 244 / 44058.2%55.5%814 / 1399 vs 244 / 440Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikStrowski 2.00/Spanik 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Spanik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 15 · 03:25K. Strowski43101111113T. Spanik33127861
LSep 14 · 10:50K. Strowski24441151T. Spanik3611113113
WSep 14 · 03:25K. Strowski43115115113T. Spanik4791181182
WAug 31 · 09:20K. Strowski42511114113T. Spanik4411771182
LJul 20 · 10:00K. Strowski4671191182T. Spanik47117117113
WJun 20 · 13:20K. Strowski4011117113T. Spanik36971191
LJun 20 · 10:50K. Strowski32115791T. Spanik4181111113
WMay 5 · 11:55K. Strowski46116711113T. Spanik4591111772
K. Strowski10
LSep 15 · 11:40M. Olejnik1.401111113K. Strowski2.759760LSep 15 · 09:40K. Strowski2.75471171M. Jadczyk1.4011117113WSep 15 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.57118101192K. Strowski2.25911123113LSep 15 · 07:20K. Strowski2.2091291152M. Miastowski1.611110117113LSep 15 · 06:05M. Olejnik1.36712118113K. Strowski3.00111081152WSep 15 · 04:55J. Braun1.73115581K. Strowski2.0031111113WSep 15 · 03:25T. Spanik1.73127861K. Strowski2.00101111113LSep 14 · 14:10K. Strowski1.83811101172K. Wloczko1.83116129113WSep 14 · 12:30K. Petas1.6111971162K. Strowski2.20511118113LSep 14 · 11:40A. Wiecek1.6191214113K. Strowski2.2011101291
T. Spanik10
WSep 15 · 09:20A. Wiecek2.2511168111T. Spanik1.57131411133LSep 15 · 07:45T. Spanik2.209680M. Olejnik1.611111113LSep 15 · 06:30T. Spanik1.67411140J. Braun2.101113163LSep 15 · 05:15T. Spanik1.571199191M. Miastowski2.2581111213LSep 15 · 04:10A. Wiecek2.0011815113T. Spanik1.736111361LSep 15 · 03:25T. Spanik1.73127861K. Strowski2.00101111113WSep 14 · 14:35A. Wiecek2.20118712122T. Spanik1.619111110143LSep 14 · 13:20T. Spanik1.73681191K. Wloczko2.0011115113WSep 14 · 12:05M. Jadczyk2.001011101172T. Spanik1.73128127113WSep 14 · 10:50K. Strowski2.20441151T. Spanik1.6111113113
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