TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13129063
Played Sep 15Finished
Tibor Spanik
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1189119111921––
Maksymilian Miastowski
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:40 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTibor Spanik above · Maksymilian Miastowski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 19-21
Point 99 set 4, 19-21 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 60.5%
99 points played in total.
H2H Tibor Spanik 11–6 Maksymilian Miastowski Maksymilian Miastowski has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:40What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Spanik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-6 in 17
Spanik
Wrong
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spanik 1887 vs Miastowski 1854
Spanik
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spanik 40% vs Miastowski 80%
Miastowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spanik 60% vs Miastowski 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Spanik -2 · Miastowski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Spanik) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Miastowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpanik 1.57 / Miastowski 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Spanik)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13129063
Spanik1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 152 of 261
Up 2–0, closes it94% 74 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it75% 108 of 145
Miastowski2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 81 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back23% 23 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSpanik6wins
AwayMiastowski4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSpanik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpanik75%6 of 8
AwayMiastowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spanik8Miastowski2n = 10Spanik took 8 of 10
S2Spanik7Miastowski3n = 10Spanik took 7 of 10
S3Spanik5Miastowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Spanik1Miastowski5n = 6Miastowski took 5 of 6
S5Spanik2Miastowski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSpanikMiastowskiS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.336.9+2.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpanikMiastowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime243 / 437 vs 584 / 112255.6%52.1%243 / 437 vs 584 / 1122Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikSpanik 1.57/Miastowski 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Miastowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 05:15T. Spanik481199191M. Miastowski5181111213
WAug 30 · 13:20T. Spanik351113113M. Miastowski2071120
LAug 30 · 05:15T. Spanik2561270M. Miastowski361114113
WAug 29 · 13:20T. Spanik44111156113M. Miastowski4589111162
WAug 29 · 07:45T. Spanik3812114113M. Miastowski371071191
LJul 19 · 09:00T. Spanik4351212682M. Miastowski5311101011113
WJul 19 · 06:30T. Spanik331111113M. Miastowski216780
WJul 18 · 09:00T. Spanik51111199113M. Miastowski3948111152
LJul 18 · 07:45T. Spanik4211611952M. Miastowski42711211113
WMay 25 · 10:45T. Spanik341211113M. Miastowski2510690
T. Spanik10
LSep 15 · 04:10A. Wiecek2.0011815113T. Spanik1.736111361LSep 15 · 03:25T. Spanik1.73127861K. Strowski2.00101111113WSep 14 · 14:35A. Wiecek2.20118712122T. Spanik1.619111110143LSep 14 · 13:20T. Spanik1.73681191K. Wloczko2.0011115113WSep 14 · 12:05M. Jadczyk2.001011101172T. Spanik1.73128127113WSep 14 · 10:50K. Strowski2.20441151T. Spanik1.6111113113WSep 14 · 09:20K. Petas1.8341121162T. Spanik1.83118119113WSep 14 · 07:45T. Spanik1.73118116113M. Jadczyk2.0091171172LSep 14 · 06:30T. Spanik1.806111091A. Wiecek1.9111512113WSep 14 · 05:15T. Spanik1.6791111113K. Wloczko2.10114821
M. Miastowski10
WSep 15 · 04:30M. Olejnik1.50911891M. Miastowski2.5011611113WSep 15 · 03:00A. Wiecek1.678131091M. Miastowski2.10111112113LSep 11 · 14:15M. Miastowski1.731285151M. Nowalinski1.92101111173WSep 11 · 12:35K. Staszczyk2.905890M. Miastowski1.321111113WSep 11 · 11:45D. Kosmal2.50121567102M. Miastowski1.4510131111123WSep 11 · 10:55M. Miastowski1.381313113K. Wisniewski2.65111190WSep 11 · 09:45M. Miastowski1.3791112113M. Kolek2.701191081WSep 11 · 08:30M. Miastowski2.381191111123M. Olejnik1.53911813102LSep 11 · 06:55M. Miastowski2.0010111181M. Jadczyk1.7312135113LSep 11 · 05:40M. Miastowski1.8351131182K. Wloczko1.83116117113
Upcoming Matches
T. Spanik
M. Miastowski
Sep 15 · 07:20M. Miastowski1.61K. Strowski2.20—Sep 15 · 08:05M. Miastowski1.80J. Braun1.91—Sep 15 · 09:45M. Miastowski1.60L. Jarocki2.10—Sep 15 · 10:55M. Miastowski1.51M. Rutkowski2.28—Sep 15 · 11:45M. Miastowski1.45M. Malachowski2.43—Sep 15 · 12:35M. Miastowski1.66M. Sklensky2.00—Sep 15 · 14:15M. Miastowski1.65K. Glazowski2.03—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.