TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13128974
Played Sep 15Finished
Martin Olejnik
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911116811911––
Maksymilian Miastowski
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:12 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Olejnik to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Olejnik above · Maksymilian Miastowski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Martin Olejnik at 63.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Martin Olejnik 11–7 Maksymilian Miastowski Maksymilian Miastowski has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:12What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Olejnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-7 in 18
Olejnik
Wrong
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Olejnik 1866 vs Miastowski 1826
Olejnik
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Olejnik 60% vs Miastowski 80%
Miastowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olejnik 60% vs Miastowski 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Olejnik +2 · Miastowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Olejnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Miastowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlejnik 1.50 / Miastowski 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Olejnik)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13128974
Olejnik1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 180 of 302
Up 2–0, closes it94% 96 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it85% 134 of 157
Miastowski2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 83 of 190
Down 0–1, comes back23% 24 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOlejnik6wins
AwayMiastowski4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOlejnik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOlejnik100%4 of 4
AwayMiastowski66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Olejnik4Miastowski6n = 10Miastowski took 6 of 10
S2Olejnik6Miastowski4n = 10Olejnik took 6 of 10
S3Olejnik7Miastowski3n = 10Olejnik took 7 of 10
S4Olejnik3Miastowski2n = 5Olejnik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOlejnikMiastowskiO − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.335.6+2.7per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlejnikMiastowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime450 / 821 vs 582 / 112054.8%52%450 / 821 vs 582 / 1120Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OlejnikOlejnik 1.50/Miastowski 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.3%
Olejnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Miastowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 08:30M. Olejnik51911813102M. Miastowski541191111123
WAug 11 · 08:30M. Olejnik331111113M. Miastowski228680
WJun 9 · 12:00M. Olejnik391211163M. Miastowski26102140
WJun 9 · 05:50M. Olejnik43101111113M. Miastowski29127461
WMay 1 · 13:15M. Olejnik331111113M. Miastowski249780
LMay 1 · 06:15M. Olejnik391381171M. Miastowski4215115113
LApr 4 · 14:05M. Olejnik26121040M. Miastowski371412113
LApr 4 · 05:50M. Olejnik219750M. Miastowski331111113
WNov 12 · 15:50M. Olejnik45111111123M. Miastowski409138101
WNov 12 · 10:35M. Olejnik531011156113M. Miastowski49129131142
M. Olejnik10
WSep 15 · 03:45J. Braun2.00114111062M. Olejnik1.73911612113WSep 11 · 15:25M. Olejnik1.531011811123K. Kolodziej2.38127114102LSep 11 · 13:45J. Kuzmicz1.83111011113M. Olejnik1.83512691LSep 11 · 12:55K. Strowski3.0081111113M. Olejnik1.36119781WSep 11 · 12:05M. Olejnik1.677111411113K. Wloczko2.1011416562WSep 11 · 10:50M. Olejnik2.00111111113M. Jadczyk1.73961351LSep 11 · 08:30M. Miastowski2.381191111123M. Olejnik1.53911813102LSep 11 · 07:20M. Olejnik1.61412381J. Kuzmicz2.20111011113WSep 11 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.0091080M. Olejnik1.731112113WSep 11 · 04:55K. Wloczko2.25117141M. Olejnik1.5761111113
M. Miastowski10
WSep 15 · 03:00A. Wiecek1.678131091M. Miastowski2.10111112113LSep 11 · 14:15M. Miastowski1.731285151M. Nowalinski1.92101111173WSep 11 · 12:35K. Staszczyk2.905890M. Miastowski1.321111113WSep 11 · 11:45D. Kosmal2.50121567102M. Miastowski1.4510131111123WSep 11 · 10:55M. Miastowski1.381313113K. Wisniewski2.65111190WSep 11 · 09:45M. Miastowski1.3791112113M. Kolek2.701191081WSep 11 · 08:30M. Miastowski2.381191111123M. Olejnik1.53911813102LSep 11 · 06:55M. Miastowski2.0010111181M. Jadczyk1.7312135113LSep 11 · 05:40M. Miastowski1.8351131182K. Wloczko1.83116117113WSep 11 · 04:10M. Miastowski1.441112113G. Poliniewicz2.6361050
Upcoming Matches
M. Olejnik
Sep 15 · 06:05M. Olejnik1.36K. Strowski3.00—Sep 15 · 06:55M. Olejnik1.67A. Wiecek2.10—Sep 15 · 07:45M. Olejnik1.61T. Spanik2.20—Sep 15 · 09:00M. Olejnik1.73J. Braun2.00—Sep 15 · 10:00M. Olejnik1.67A. Wiecek2.10—Sep 15 · 11:40M. Olejnik1.36K. Strowski3.00—Sep 15 · 12:55M. Olejnik2.00M. Jadczyk1.73—Sep 15 · 14:35M. Olejnik1.67T. Spanik2.10—
M. Miastowski
Sep 15 · 05:15M. Miastowski2.25T. Spanik1.57—Sep 15 · 07:20M. Miastowski1.61K. Strowski2.20—Sep 15 · 08:05M. Miastowski1.80J. Braun1.91—Sep 15 · 09:45M. Miastowski1.59L. Jarocki2.11—Sep 15 · 10:55M. Miastowski1.51M. Rutkowski2.28—Sep 15 · 11:45M. Miastowski1.45M. Malachowski2.43—Sep 15 · 12:35M. Miastowski1.66M. Sklensky2.00—Sep 15 · 14:15M. Miastowski—K. Glazowski——
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