TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13128972
Played Sep 15Finished
Martin Olejnik
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117116––––
Karol Strowski
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:11 and never touched — 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeMartin Olejnik to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Olejnik above · Karol Strowski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 55 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Martin Olejnik at 70.4%
55 points played in total.
H2H Martin Olejnik 7–2 Karol Strowski Karol Strowski has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Olejnik beat Strowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:11What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Olejnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Olejnik
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Olejnik 1913 vs Strowski 1764
Olejnik
Correct
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Olejnik 80% vs Strowski 20%
Olejnik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olejnik 60% vs Strowski 40%
Olejnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Olejnik +1 · Strowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Olejnik) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlejnik 1.40 / Strowski 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Olejnik)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13128972
Olejnik1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 181 of 303
Up 2–0, closes it94% 96 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it85% 134 of 157
Strowski2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 78 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back30% 34 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeOlejnik7wins
AwayStrowski2wins
2 of 9 to a deciderOlejnik leads 7–2, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOlejnik80%4 of 5
AwayStrowski25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Olejnik5Strowski4n = 9Olejnik took 5 of 9
S2Olejnik5Strowski4n = 9Olejnik took 5 of 9
S3Olejnik7Strowski2n = 9Olejnik took 7 of 9
S4Olejnik3Strowski3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricOlejnikStrowskiO − SBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match39.335.3+4.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlejnikStrowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime455 / 828 vs 814 / 140055%58.1%455 / 828 vs 814 / 1400Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OlejnikOlejnik 1.40/Strowski 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Olejnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Olejnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 15 · 06:05M. Olejnik49712118113K. Strowski45111081152
LSep 11 · 12:55M. Olejnik35119781K. Strowski4181111113
WAug 25 · 11:40M. Olejnik331111113K. Strowski197570
WAug 4 · 14:35M. Olejnik341112113K. Strowski2291030
WJul 31 · 15:45M. Olejnik4011711113K. Strowski36711991
WJul 28 · 10:50M. Olejnik4712611183K. Strowski4410117161
LJul 24 · 14:35M. Olejnik2691160K. Strowski351113113
WJul 17 · 10:00M. Olejnik507111110113K. Strowski4511781272
WJul 7 · 11:40M. Olejnik4071111113K. Strowski31118661
M. Olejnik10
WSep 15 · 10:00M. Olejnik1.6711711113A. Wiecek2.10711781LSep 15 · 09:00M. Olejnik1.73151061172J. Braun2.001312115113WSep 15 · 07:45T. Spanik2.209680M. Olejnik1.611111113WSep 15 · 06:55A. Wiecek2.10111191152M. Olejnik1.67139119113WSep 15 · 06:05M. Olejnik1.36712118113K. Strowski3.00111081152LSep 15 · 04:30M. Olejnik1.50911891M. Miastowski2.5011611113WSep 15 · 03:45J. Braun2.00114111062M. Olejnik1.73911612113WSep 11 · 15:25M. Olejnik1.531011811123K. Kolodziej2.38127114102LSep 11 · 13:45J. Kuzmicz1.83111011113M. Olejnik1.83512691LSep 11 · 12:55K. Strowski3.0081111113M. Olejnik1.36119781
K. Strowski10
LSep 15 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.50911118113K. Strowski2.5011491172LSep 15 · 10:50K. Strowski2.00101090T. Spanik1.731212113LSep 15 · 09:40K. Strowski2.75471171M. Jadczyk1.4011117113WSep 15 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.57118101192K. Strowski2.25911123113LSep 15 · 07:20K. Strowski2.2091291152M. Miastowski1.611110117113LSep 15 · 06:05M. Olejnik1.36712118113K. Strowski3.00111081152WSep 15 · 04:55J. Braun1.73115581K. Strowski2.0031111113WSep 15 · 03:25T. Spanik1.73127861K. Strowski2.00101111113LSep 14 · 14:10K. Strowski1.83811101172K. Wloczko1.83116129113WSep 11 · 12:55K. Strowski3.0081111113M. Olejnik1.36119781
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