TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13128985
Played Sep 15Finished
Josef Braun
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
113511511811––
Karol Strowski
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:20 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeJosef Braun to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJosef Braun above · Karol Strowski below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 65 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Josef Braun at 54.1%
65 points played in total.
H2H Josef Braun 15–15 Karol Strowski Dead even across their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:20What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Braun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-15 in 30
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Braun 1892 vs Strowski 1801
Braun
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Braun 40% vs Strowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Braun 60% vs Strowski 40%
Braun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Braun -1 · Strowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Braun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Braun form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBraun 1.73 / Strowski 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Braun)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13128985
Braun1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 139 of 231
Up 2–0, closes it93% 74 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it75% 104 of 138
Strowski2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 78 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back30% 34 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBraun3wins
AwayStrowski7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderStrowski leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBraun40%2 of 5
AwayStrowski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Braun5Strowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Braun5Strowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Braun6Strowski4n = 10Braun took 6 of 10
S4Braun4Strowski3n = 7Braun took 4 of 7
S5Braun1Strowski6n = 7Strowski took 6 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBraunStrowskiB − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.241.9−2.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBraunStrowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime514 / 978 vs 815 / 139752.6%58.3%514 / 978 vs 815 / 1397Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BraunBraun 1.73/Strowski 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Braun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Strowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 10 · 14:35J. Braun331111113K. Strowski205780
WJul 25 · 14:35J. Braun331111113K. Strowski195590
LJul 7 · 10:50J. Braun44111011482K. Strowski46412811113
LJul 3 · 14:35J. Braun5014911882K. Strowski531211811113
LJun 23 · 14:35J. Braun4171251162K. Strowski521110119113
LMay 19 · 13:10J. Braun45126101162K. Strowski531011129113
LApr 8 · 10:20J. Braun3544111152K. Strowski49111179113
LMar 17 · 15:45J. Braun4561112882K. Strowski491161011113
WMar 10 · 20:45J. Braun46811511113K. Strowski4511711792
LMar 10 · 15:45J. Braun209830K. Strowski331111113
J. Braun10
LSep 15 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.67101111113J. Braun2.10125591LSep 15 · 03:45J. Braun2.00114111062M. Olejnik1.73911612113WSep 12 · 14:35J. Braun2.101111113K. Petas1.675820LSep 12 · 12:55J. Braun2.2089111182A. Witkowski1.61111169113LSep 12 · 11:40J. Braun2.7583130A. Dosz1.401111153WSep 12 · 10:00J. Braun2.0011119113S. Dosz1.73771151LSep 12 · 09:00J. Braun1.531110791G. Adamiak2.3891211113WSep 12 · 08:05J. Braun2.631111113A. Dosz1.449730WSep 12 · 06:30G. Adamiak2.382580J. Braun1.531111113WSep 12 · 05:40S. Dosz1.804420J. Braun1.911111113
K. Strowski10
LSep 15 · 06:05M. Olejnik1.36712118113K. Strowski3.00111081152WSep 15 · 03:25T. Spanik1.73127861K. Strowski2.00101111113LSep 14 · 14:10K. Strowski1.83811101172K. Wloczko1.83116129113WSep 14 · 12:30K. Petas1.6111971162K. Strowski2.20511118113LSep 14 · 11:40A. Wiecek1.6191214113K. Strowski2.2011101291LSep 14 · 10:50K. Strowski2.20441151T. Spanik1.6111113113WSep 14 · 09:40K. Strowski2.75761111113M. Jadczyk1.4011117962LSep 14 · 08:30K. Petas1.61911711113K. Strowski2.2011411552LSep 14 · 07:20K. Strowski1.915830K. Wloczko1.801111113WSep 14 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.40811991K. Strowski2.7511811113
Upcoming Matches
J. Braun
K. Strowski
Sep 15 · 07:20K. Strowski2.20M. Miastowski1.61—Sep 15 · 08:30K. Strowski2.25A. Wiecek1.57—Sep 15 · 09:40K. Strowski2.75M. Jadczyk1.40—Sep 15 · 10:50K. Strowski2.00T. Spanik1.73—Sep 15 · 11:40K. Strowski3.00M. Olejnik1.36—Sep 15 · 12:30K. Strowski2.25A. Wiecek1.57—Sep 15 · 14:10K. Strowski2.00J. Braun1.73—
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