TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13129017
Played Sep 15Finished
Tibor Spanik
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11131199111210611
Josef Braun
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:32 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTibor Spanik above · Josef Braun below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 103 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 57.3%
103 points played in total.
H2H Tibor Spanik 3–6 Josef Braun Tibor Spanik has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Braun beat Spanik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:32What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Spanik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Braun
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spanik 1862 vs Braun 1900
Braun
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spanik 40% vs Braun 80%
Braun
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spanik 30% vs Braun 50%
Braun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Spanik -1 · Braun +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Spanik) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Braun form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpanik 1.67 / Braun 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Spanik)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13129017
Spanik1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 152 of 261
Up 2–0, closes it94% 74 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it75% 108 of 145
Braun2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 87 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back24% 25 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSpanik3wins
AwayBraun6wins
2 of 9 to a deciderBraun leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpanik60%3 of 5
AwayBraun100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spanik5Braun4n = 9Spanik took 5 of 9
S2Spanik4Braun5n = 9Braun took 5 of 9
S3Spanik2Braun7n = 9Braun took 7 of 9
S4Spanik2Braun4n = 6Braun took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricSpanikBraunS − BBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match33.137.6−4.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpanikBraunBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 442 vs 518 / 98455.4%52.6%245 / 442 vs 518 / 984Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikSpanik 1.67/Braun 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.2%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Braun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 15 · 06:30T. Spanik29411140J. Braun401113163
LSep 9 · 12:35T. Spanik26115281J. Braun4181111113
WAug 6 · 14:35T. Spanik47119511113J. Braun3831111852
LMay 24 · 12:50T. Spanik36951481J. Braun45111112113
LMay 24 · 05:50T. Spanik179530J. Braun331111113
LApr 25 · 11:10T. Spanik3811116642J. Braun42361111113
WApr 25 · 06:40T. Spanik331111113J. Braun248970
LMar 23 · 13:00T. Spanik301111171J. Braun4311813113
WMar 23 · 10:35T. Spanik4211118123J. Braun327411101
T. Spanik10
LSep 15 · 14:35M. Olejnik1.73131412113T. Spanik2.0015121071LSep 15 · 12:05M. Jadczyk2.00111158113T. Spanik1.7388111152WSep 15 · 10:50K. Strowski2.00101090T. Spanik1.731212113WSep 15 · 09:20A. Wiecek2.2511168111T. Spanik1.57131411133LSep 15 · 07:45T. Spanik2.209680M. Olejnik1.611111113LSep 15 · 06:30T. Spanik1.67411140J. Braun2.101113163LSep 15 · 05:15T. Spanik1.571199191M. Miastowski2.2581111213LSep 15 · 04:10A. Wiecek2.0011815113T. Spanik1.736111361LSep 15 · 03:25T. Spanik1.73127861K. Strowski2.00101111113WSep 14 · 14:35A. Wiecek2.20118712122T. Spanik1.619111110143
J. Braun10
LSep 15 · 14:10K. Strowski2.2011911113J. Braun1.61611961WSep 15 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.6781191182J. Braun2.10116113113LSep 15 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.5711711113J. Braun2.25711281WSep 15 · 09:00M. Olejnik1.73151061172J. Braun2.001312115113WSep 15 · 08:05J. Braun1.91581111113M. Miastowski1.8011119962WSep 15 · 06:30T. Spanik1.67411140J. Braun2.101113163LSep 15 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.67101111113J. Braun2.10125591LSep 15 · 04:55J. Braun1.73115581K. Strowski2.0031111113LSep 15 · 03:45J. Braun2.00114111062M. Olejnik1.73911612113WSep 12 · 14:35J. Braun2.101111113K. Petas1.675820
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