TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13129114
Played Sep 15Finished
Martin Olejnik
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
131514121210117––
Tibor Spanik
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:01 and never touched — 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Olejnik to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Olejnik above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 94 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Martin Olejnik at 55.9%
94 points played in total.
H2H Martin Olejnik 9–6 Tibor Spanik Tibor Spanik has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Olejnik beat Spanik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:01What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Olejnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Olejnik
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Olejnik 1902 vs Spanik 1844
Olejnik
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Olejnik 60% vs Spanik 40%
Olejnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olejnik 70% vs Spanik 30%
Olejnik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Olejnik -1 · Spanik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Olejnik) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlejnik 1.73 / Spanik 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Olejnik)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13129114
Olejnik1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 181 of 303
Up 2–0, closes it94% 96 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it85% 134 of 157
Spanik2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 63 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back29% 17 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOlejnik6wins
AwaySpanik4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOlejnik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOlejnik71.4%5 of 7
AwaySpanik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Olejnik7Spanik3n = 10Olejnik took 7 of 10
S2Olejnik5Spanik5n = 10split evenly
S3Olejnik6Spanik4n = 10Olejnik took 6 of 10
S4Olejnik3Spanik4n = 7Spanik took 4 of 7
S5Olejnik2Spanik1n = 3Olejnik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOlejnikSpanikO − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.536.6+0.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlejnikSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime455 / 829 vs 245 / 44354.9%55.3%455 / 829 vs 245 / 443Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OlejnikOlejnik 1.73/Spanik 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Olejnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Olejnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 07:45M. Olejnik331111113T. Spanik239680
LSep 8 · 12:55M. Olejnik334611121T. Spanik4411118143
WSep 8 · 06:05M. Olejnik49117911113T. Spanik4581111782
WAug 18 · 11:40M. Olejnik331111113T. Spanik199460
LAug 18 · 04:30M. Olejnik25114821T. Spanik4071111113
LAug 7 · 11:15M. Olejnik4111116582T. Spanik49791111113
WAug 7 · 05:40M. Olejnik4291111113T. Spanik35118791
WJun 2 · 11:35M. Olejnik531111614113T. Spanik49713111262
WJun 2 · 04:20M. Olejnik331111113T. Spanik239680
LMay 5 · 04:20M. Olejnik33491191T. Spanik3911116113
M. Olejnik10
LSep 15 · 12:55M. Olejnik2.00811651M. Jadczyk1.7311611113WSep 15 · 11:40M. Olejnik1.401111113K. Strowski2.759760WSep 15 · 10:00M. Olejnik1.6711711113A. Wiecek2.10711781LSep 15 · 09:00M. Olejnik1.73151061172J. Braun2.001312115113WSep 15 · 07:45T. Spanik2.209680M. Olejnik1.611111113WSep 15 · 06:55A. Wiecek2.10111191152M. Olejnik1.67139119113WSep 15 · 06:05M. Olejnik1.36712118113K. Strowski3.00111081152LSep 15 · 04:30M. Olejnik1.50911891M. Miastowski2.5011611113WSep 15 · 03:45J. Braun2.00114111062M. Olejnik1.73911612113WSep 11 · 15:25M. Olejnik1.531011811123K. Kolodziej2.38127114102
T. Spanik10
LSep 15 · 13:20T. Spanik1.67111191262J. Braun2.101391110113LSep 15 · 12:05M. Jadczyk2.00111158113T. Spanik1.7388111152WSep 15 · 10:50K. Strowski2.00101090T. Spanik1.731212113WSep 15 · 09:20A. Wiecek2.2511168111T. Spanik1.57131411133LSep 15 · 07:45T. Spanik2.209680M. Olejnik1.611111113LSep 15 · 06:30T. Spanik1.67411140J. Braun2.101113163LSep 15 · 05:15T. Spanik1.571199191M. Miastowski2.2581111213LSep 15 · 04:10A. Wiecek2.0011815113T. Spanik1.736111361LSep 15 · 03:25T. Spanik1.73127861K. Strowski2.00101111113WSep 14 · 14:35A. Wiecek2.20118712122T. Spanik1.619111110143
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