TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13128970
Played Sep 15Finished
Martin Olejnik
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811116611511––
Marcin Jadczyk
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:11 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Olejnik above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 69 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 54.1%
69 points played in total.
H2H Martin Olejnik 35–29 Marcin Jadczyk Marcin Jadczyk has won 29 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:11What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jadczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-29 in 64
Olejnik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Olejnik 1913 vs Jadczyk 1921
Jadczyk
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Olejnik 80% vs Jadczyk 100%
Jadczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olejnik 70% vs Jadczyk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Olejnik +2 · Jadczyk +5
Jadczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jadczyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadczyk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlejnik 2.00 / Jadczyk 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jadczyk)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13128970
Olejnik2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 43 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back24% 12 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Jadczyk1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 406 of 638
Up 2–0, closes it98% 201 of 206
Up 1–0, closes it83% 317 of 382
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOlejnik6wins
AwayJadczyk4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOlejnik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOlejnik100%4 of 4
AwayJadczyk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Olejnik4Jadczyk6n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S2Olejnik5Jadczyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Olejnik6Jadczyk4n = 10Olejnik took 6 of 10
S4Olejnik1Jadczyk6n = 7Jadczyk took 6 of 7
S5Olejnik4Jadczyk0n = 4Olejnik took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOlejnikJadczykO − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.440.0−0.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlejnikJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime455 / 828 vs 989 / 168755%58.6%455 / 828 vs 989 / 1687Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykOlejnik 2.00/Jadczyk 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 10:50M. Olejnik44111111113M. Jadczyk33961351
WSep 11 · 06:05M. Olejnik341112113M. Jadczyk2791080
LSep 2 · 09:40M. Olejnik2310490M. Jadczyk341211113
LSep 2 · 06:05M. Olejnik33571291M. Jadczyk43111110113
WAug 28 · 14:10M. Olejnik5510111112113M. Jadczyk5212891492
WAug 28 · 03:45M. Olejnik473111110123M. Jadczyk45117512102
LAug 25 · 03:45M. Olejnik431491191M. Jadczyk4616118113
WAug 21 · 03:45M. Olejnik51117148113M. Jadczyk52911121192
WAug 14 · 15:00M. Olejnik46111194113M. Jadczyk3563111142
LAug 14 · 06:05M. Olejnik189360M. Jadczyk331111113
M. Olejnik10
WSep 15 · 14:35M. Olejnik1.73131412113T. Spanik2.0015121071WSep 15 · 11:40M. Olejnik1.401111113K. Strowski2.759760WSep 15 · 10:00M. Olejnik1.6711711113A. Wiecek2.10711781LSep 15 · 09:00M. Olejnik1.73151061172J. Braun2.001312115113WSep 15 · 07:45T. Spanik2.209680M. Olejnik1.611111113WSep 15 · 06:55A. Wiecek2.10111191152M. Olejnik1.67139119113WSep 15 · 06:05M. Olejnik1.36712118113K. Strowski3.00111081152LSep 15 · 04:30M. Olejnik1.50911891M. Miastowski2.5011611113WSep 15 · 03:45J. Braun2.00114111062M. Olejnik1.73911612113WSep 11 · 15:25M. Olejnik1.531011811123K. Kolodziej2.38127114102
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 16 · 13:45M. Miastowski2.00791111113M. Jadczyk1.7311119562WSep 16 · 12:55G. Felkel1.83791141M. Jadczyk1.8311115113WSep 16 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.5381111113K. Wloczko2.38117771LSep 16 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.57117101172J. Kuzmicz2.25411126113LSep 16 · 09:40P. David1.571011117113M. Jadczyk2.2512871192WSep 16 · 07:45K. Wloczko2.50413641M. Jadczyk1.50111111113LSep 16 · 06:55M. Miastowski2.0012911123M. Jadczyk1.7310115101WSep 16 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.001711113P. David1.7315870LSep 16 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.731091181J. Kuzmicz2.0012115113LSep 16 · 03:45G. Felkel1.83111189113M. Jadczyk1.8387111112
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