TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13128960
Played Sep 15Finished
Marcin Jadczyk
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117711112118––
Josef Braun
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:11 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Josef Braun below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 68 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 59.3%
68 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 37–24 Josef Braun Josef Braun has won 24 of their 61 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:11What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jadczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-24 in 61
Jadczyk
Correct
gap of 13 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1900 vs Braun 1902
Braun
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 80% vs Braun 60%
Jadczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 50% vs Braun 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk +3 · Braun +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Jadczyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Braun form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 1.57 / Braun 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Jadczyk)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13128960
Jadczyk1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 406 of 638
Up 2–0, closes it98% 201 of 206
Up 1–0, closes it83% 317 of 382
Braun2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 87 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back24% 25 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadczyk5wins
AwayBraun5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk80%4 of 5
AwayBraun80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk5Braun5n = 10split evenly
S2Jadczyk4Braun6n = 10Braun took 6 of 10
S3Jadczyk7Braun3n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S4Jadczyk3Braun3n = 6split evenly
S5Jadczyk2Braun2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadczykBraunJ − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.236.6−0.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykBraunBasisWin rate · lifetime987 / 1685 vs 517 / 98258.6%52.7%987 / 1685 vs 517 / 982Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykJadczyk 1.57/Braun 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 13 · 07:45M. Jadczyk3782111152J. Braun46111158113
WJun 23 · 12:55M. Jadczyk331111113J. Braun217860
LJun 23 · 03:45M. Jadczyk144640J. Braun331111113
WJun 6 · 07:15M. Jadczyk361114113J. Braun2451270
WMay 24 · 10:45M. Jadczyk50148116113J. Braun46121151172
WMay 24 · 07:15M. Jadczyk49871111123J. Braun49111198102
LMay 17 · 10:45M. Jadczyk4698111172J. Braun50111189113
WMay 17 · 07:15M. Jadczyk331111113J. Braun227780
LMay 13 · 13:15M. Jadczyk33118951J. Braun4181111113
LApr 28 · 10:45M. Jadczyk31511781J. Braun3411111113
M. Jadczyk10
WSep 15 · 09:40K. Strowski2.75471171M. Jadczyk1.4011117113WSep 14 · 13:45K. Petas2.25214471M. Jadczyk1.57111211113WSep 14 · 12:55A. Wiecek2.3838130M. Jadczyk1.531111153LSep 14 · 12:05M. Jadczyk2.001011101172T. Spanik1.73128127113WSep 14 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.539111112113K. Wloczko2.3811561462LSep 14 · 09:40K. Strowski2.75761111113M. Jadczyk1.4011117962LSep 14 · 07:45T. Spanik1.73118116113M. Jadczyk2.0091171172LSep 14 · 06:55K. Petas2.2011613113M. Jadczyk1.615111181LSep 14 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.40811991K. Strowski2.7511811113WSep 14 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.441111113K. Wloczko2.639370
J. Braun10
WSep 15 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.6781191182J. Braun2.10116113113WSep 15 · 09:00M. Olejnik1.73151061172J. Braun2.001312115113WSep 15 · 08:05J. Braun1.91581111113M. Miastowski1.8011119962WSep 15 · 06:30T. Spanik1.67411140J. Braun2.101113163LSep 15 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.67101111113J. Braun2.10125591LSep 15 · 04:55J. Braun1.73115581K. Strowski2.0031111113LSep 15 · 03:45J. Braun2.00114111062M. Olejnik1.73911612113WSep 12 · 14:35J. Braun2.101111113K. Petas1.675820LSep 12 · 12:55J. Braun2.2089111182A. Witkowski1.61111169113LSep 12 · 11:40J. Braun2.7583130A. Dosz1.401111153
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