TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125750
Played Sep 14Finished
Kacper Petas
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
2111412411711––
Marcin Jadczyk
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:11 and never touched — 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Petas above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 72 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 55.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Petas 48–74 Marcin Jadczyk Kacper Petas has won 48 of their 122 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Petas beat Jadczyk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:11What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jadczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
48-74 in 122
Jadczyk
Correct
gap of 26 in 122, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Petas 1883 vs Jadczyk 1878
Petas
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petas 60% vs Jadczyk 40%
Petas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petas 40% vs Jadczyk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Petas -1 · Jadczyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Jadczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetas 2.25 / Jadczyk 1.57
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Jadczyk)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13125750
Petas2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 113 of 259
Down 0–1, comes back18% 24 of 134
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 66
Jadczyk1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 402 of 631
Up 2–0, closes it98% 199 of 203
Up 1–0, closes it83% 314 of 378
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePetas4wins
AwayJadczyk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJadczyk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePetas42.9%3 of 7
AwayJadczyk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Petas7Jadczyk3n = 10Petas took 7 of 10
S2Petas4Jadczyk6n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S3Petas4Jadczyk6n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S4Petas5Jadczyk4n = 9Petas took 5 of 9
S5Petas1Jadczyk3n = 4Jadczyk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPetasJadczykP − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.041.2−3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetasJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime707 / 1334 vs 985 / 168353%58.5%707 / 1334 vs 985 / 1683Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykPetas 2.25/Jadczyk 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.1%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 06:55K. Petas4111613113M. Jadczyk355111181
WSep 13 · 10:25K. Petas51812911113M. Jadczyk47111011872
LSep 1 · 06:05K. Petas3781111342M. Jadczyk50118911113
WAug 31 · 09:40K. Petas331111113M. Jadczyk238870
LAug 31 · 06:05K. Petas32114981M. Jadczyk4291111113
WAug 26 · 13:45K. Petas3911114133M. Jadczyk368611111
LAug 26 · 06:55K. Petas31114971M. Jadczyk4181111113
LAug 25 · 07:45K. Petas4283121182M. Jadczyk501111107113
LAug 20 · 13:45K. Petas31128651M. Jadczyk43101111113
LAug 20 · 06:55K. Petas4311681172M. Jadczyk45411118113
K. Petas10
LSep 14 · 12:30K. Petas1.6111971162K. Strowski2.20511118113WSep 14 · 11:15K. Petas1.5311116123K. Wloczko2.384711101WSep 14 · 10:00A. Wiecek1.9141111662K. Petas1.80119811113LSep 14 · 09:20K. Petas1.8341121162T. Spanik1.83118119113WSep 14 · 08:30K. Petas1.61911711113K. Strowski2.2011411552WSep 14 · 06:55K. Petas2.2011613113M. Jadczyk1.615111181LSep 14 · 05:40K. Petas1.911011791A. Wiecek1.8012611113LSep 14 · 04:10K. Petas2.0091080T. Spanik1.731112113LSep 14 · 03:00K. Petas1.7391191172K. Wloczko2.00119119113LSep 13 · 14:10J. Zandecki1.61111189113K. Petas2.2058111152
M. Jadczyk10
WSep 14 · 12:55A. Wiecek2.3838130M. Jadczyk1.531111153LSep 14 · 12:05M. Jadczyk2.001011101172T. Spanik1.73128127113WSep 14 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.539111112113K. Wloczko2.3811561462LSep 14 · 09:40K. Strowski2.75761111113M. Jadczyk1.4011117962LSep 14 · 07:45T. Spanik1.73118116113M. Jadczyk2.0091171172LSep 14 · 06:55K. Petas2.2011613113M. Jadczyk1.615111181LSep 14 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.40811991K. Strowski2.7511811113WSep 14 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.441111113K. Wloczko2.639370WSep 14 · 03:45A. Wiecek2.38121351182M. Jadczyk1.531411117113WSep 13 · 13:45G. Adamiak2.75711771M. Jadczyk1.4011511113
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