TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Denys Maltsev
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911115119115––
Mykhailo Potapov
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenys Maltsev above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 72 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Denys Maltsev 19–20 Mykhailo Potapov Denys Maltsev has won 19 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:02What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Potapov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-20 in 39
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maltsev 1550 vs Potapov 1543
Maltsev
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maltsev 40% vs Potapov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maltsev 60% vs Potapov 40%
Maltsev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maltsev -1 · Potapov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maltsev) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potapov form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaltsev 1.83 / Potapov 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Maltsev)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13166599
Maltsev1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Potapov1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaltsev4wins
AwayPotapov6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderPotapov leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaltsev50%2 of 4
AwayPotapov66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maltsev4Potapov6n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S2Maltsev4Potapov6n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S3Maltsev6Potapov4n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S4Maltsev5Potapov3n = 8Maltsev took 5 of 8
S5Maltsev2Potapov4n = 6Potapov took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaltsevPotapovM − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.543.8−3.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaltsevPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime456 / 883 vs 203 / 42851.6%47.4%456 / 883 vs 203 / 428Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaltsevMaltsev 1.83/Potapov 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Maltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Maltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 23:45D. Maltsev331111113M. Potapov247980
LSep 9 · 10:35D. Maltsev4411152972M. Potapov548131111113
LSep 8 · 17:05D. Maltsev217770M. Potapov331111113
WSep 7 · 21:45D. Maltsev51812812113M. Potapov511110111092
LSep 5 · 20:00D. Maltsev4713971172M. Potapov521111118113
LSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev4284111182M. Potapov49111179113
LSep 1 · 12:05D. Maltsev32871161M. Potapov4211119113
WAug 20 · 21:45D. Maltsev511151410113M. Potapov46711121242
WAug 17 · 23:30D. Maltsev4371111143M. Potapov401198121
LAug 12 · 04:35D. Maltsev4164111282M. Potapov471111410113
D. Maltsev10
LSep 21 · 14:25D. Maltsev2.50891161I. Pytsko1.5011115113WSep 21 · 12:25D. Maltsev1.83129911113Y. Parahailo1.83101111982LSep 21 · 02:45D. Maltsev2.5011114572I. Pytsko1.50971111113LSep 21 · 24:45V. Moshovskyi1.731211113D. Maltsev2.0010990WSep 20 · 23:45D. Maltsev1.831111113M. Potapov1.837980WSep 20 · 22:45V. Korobko3.50154761D. Maltsev1.28131111113WSep 20 · 21:15D. Maltsev1.731111113I. Fashchevskyi2.007560WSep 19 · 03:00D. Maltsev2.2011117123O. Storozhenko1.615911101LSep 19 · 01:00V. Kovalchuk1.33111011113D. Maltsev3.25312991WSep 18 · 23:00I. Fashchevskyi2.0012541152D. Maltsev1.731011118113
M. Potapov10
LSep 21 · 13:55O. Storozhenko1.5011126113M. Potapov2.505101191LSep 21 · 11:55I. Fashchevskyi2.0011101110113M. Potapov1.7361281282WSep 21 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi1.8379100M. Potapov1.831111123WSep 21 · 01:45M. Potapov2.10511119113I. Pytsko1.6711791152LSep 20 · 23:45D. Maltsev1.831111113M. Potapov1.837980LSep 20 · 21:45V. Moshovskyi2.25931412113M. Potapov1.571111121062LSep 20 · 20:45V. Korobko3.50101112113M. Potapov1.281281061WSep 12 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80821111113Y. Tebenko1.9111118992LSep 12 · 24:45M. Potapov1.25115541V. Korobko3.7581111113WSep 11 · 23:15M. Potapov2.20131110113R. Novak1.611181221
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