TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7119111012––––
Mykhailo Potapov
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Fashchevskyi above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 60 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fashchevskyi 16–11 Mykhailo Potapov Mykhailo Potapov has won 11 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:05What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Potapov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-11 in 27
Fashchevskyi
Wrong
gap of 5 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fashchevskyi 1450 vs Potapov 1560
Potapov
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fashchevskyi 60% vs Potapov 40%
Fashchevskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fashchevskyi 40% vs Potapov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fashchevskyi +2 · Potapov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Potapov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potapov form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFashchevskyi 1.83 / Potapov 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Potapov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13160914
Fashchevskyi1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Potapov1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFashchevskyi7wins
AwayPotapov3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFashchevskyi leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFashchevskyi100%6 of 6
AwayPotapov75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fashchevskyi6Potapov4n = 10Fashchevskyi took 6 of 10
S2Fashchevskyi4Potapov6n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S3Fashchevskyi8Potapov2n = 10Fashchevskyi took 8 of 10
S4Fashchevskyi3Potapov6n = 9Potapov took 6 of 9
S5Fashchevskyi3Potapov0n = 3Fashchevskyi took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFashchevskyiPotapovF − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.937.3+0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFashchevskyiPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime292 / 590 vs 202 / 42549.5%47.5%292 / 590 vs 202 / 425Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovFashchevskyi 1.83/Potapov 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Potapov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 08:35I. Fashchevskyi45115117113M. Potapov4381161172
WSep 8 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi331111113M. Potapov225890
LSep 4 · 01:45I. Fashchevskyi31811661M. Potapov4111811113
WSep 2 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi46116117113M. Potapov4081141162
LAug 20 · 23:15I. Fashchevskyi28571151M. Potapov4111118113
WAug 12 · 07:35I. Fashchevskyi3611311113M. Potapov32611691
WJul 31 · 14:55I. Fashchevskyi4491112123M. Potapov3811710101
WJul 25 · 04:25I. Fashchevskyi44117114113M. Potapov4571181182
LJul 24 · 13:25I. Fashchevskyi31571181M. Potapov3911116113
WJul 23 · 21:15I. Fashchevskyi4111118113M. Potapov32661191
I. Fashchevskyi10
WSep 21 · 01:15V. Korobko1.537670I. Fashchevskyi2.381111113WSep 20 · 23:15V. Moshovskyi1.7311771492I. Fashchevskyi2.005111112113LSep 20 · 22:15I. Fashchevskyi2.00118181162I. Pytsko1.73811206113LSep 20 · 21:15D. Maltsev1.731111113I. Fashchevskyi2.007560WSep 19 · 02:00I. Fashchevskyi2.751111115113V. Kovalchuk1.4076131192LSep 19 · 24:30I. Fashchevskyi2.50117671O. Budnikov1.5091111113LSep 18 · 23:00I. Fashchevskyi2.0012541152D. Maltsev1.731011118113LSep 18 · 21:30I. Fashchevskyi2.20118111032O. Storozhenko1.61711812113WSep 18 · 20:00I. Fashchevskyi2.0011912113I. Pytsko1.738111091LSep 16 · 10:35I. Fashchevskyi2.2071151242Y. Makovka1.611121110113
M. Potapov10
WSep 21 · 01:45M. Potapov2.10511119113I. Pytsko1.6711791152LSep 20 · 23:45D. Maltsev1.831111113M. Potapov1.837980LSep 20 · 21:45V. Moshovskyi2.25931412113M. Potapov1.571111121062LSep 20 · 20:45V. Korobko3.50101112113M. Potapov1.281281061WSep 12 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80821111113Y. Tebenko1.9111118992LSep 12 · 24:45M. Potapov1.25115541V. Korobko3.7581111113WSep 11 · 23:15M. Potapov2.20131110113R. Novak1.611181221LSep 11 · 21:45M. Potapov2.25711971O. Storozhenko1.5711511113LSep 11 · 20:15M. Potapov2.20891161I. Pytsko1.6111115113WSep 9 · 10:35D. Maltsev1.8311152972M. Potapov1.838131111113
Upcoming Matches
I. Fashchevskyi
M. Potapov
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