TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Vasyl Moshovskyi
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1157117111412911
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVasyl Moshovskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasyl Moshovskyi above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 98 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Vasyl Moshovskyi at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Moshovskyi 9–5 Ivan Fashchevskyi Ivan Fashchevskyi has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:55What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Moshovskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Moshovskyi
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moshovskyi 1518 vs Fashchevskyi 1420
Moshovskyi
Wrong
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moshovskyi 40% vs Fashchevskyi 20%
Moshovskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moshovskyi 40% vs Fashchevskyi 20%
Moshovskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moshovskyi +1 · Fashchevskyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Moshovskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoshovskyi 1.73 / Fashchevskyi 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Moshovskyi)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13160862
Moshovskyi1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 58 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it88% 22 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it70% 38 of 54
Fashchevskyi2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 82 of 194
Down 0–1, comes back24% 23 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoshovskyi6wins
AwayFashchevskyi4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMoshovskyi leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoshovskyi66.7%2 of 3
AwayFashchevskyi42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moshovskyi3Fashchevskyi7n = 10Fashchevskyi took 7 of 10
S2Moshovskyi6Fashchevskyi4n = 10Moshovskyi took 6 of 10
S3Moshovskyi6Fashchevskyi4n = 10Moshovskyi took 6 of 10
S4Moshovskyi6Fashchevskyi4n = 10Moshovskyi took 6 of 10
S5Moshovskyi3Fashchevskyi1n = 4Moshovskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoshovskyiFashchevskyiM − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match45.243.2+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoshovskyiFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 331 vs 290 / 58855%49.3%182 / 331 vs 290 / 588Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoshovskyiMoshovskyi 1.73/Fashchevskyi 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Moshovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 28 · 23:15V. Moshovskyi5310101111113I. Fashchevskyi4112124852
WAug 26 · 07:35V. Moshovskyi3961111113I. Fashchevskyi28118541
WAug 19 · 11:35V. Moshovskyi4371112133I. Fashchevskyi3911710111
WAug 8 · 09:25V. Moshovskyi4313811113I. Fashchevskyi371111961
LMar 11 · 10:35V. Moshovskyi4551191192I. Fashchevskyi48117118113
LFeb 25 · 07:25V. Moshovskyi401571171I. Fashchevskyi48131113113
LJan 28 · 06:25V. Moshovskyi34681191I. Fashchevskyi4011117113
WJan 9 · 15:25V. Moshovskyi561411910123I. Fashchevskyi541291112102
WDec 26 · 14:25V. Moshovskyi546131113113I. Fashchevskyi54111181592
V. Moshovskyi10
WSep 20 · 21:45V. Moshovskyi2.25931412113M. Potapov1.571111121062LSep 20 · 20:15V. Moshovskyi2.386116101I. Pytsko1.5311811123LSep 8 · 18:05V. Moshovskyi2.10681141M. Potapov1.6711114113LSep 8 · 16:35V. Moshovskyi1.5711411682Y. Tebenko2.25311211113WSep 8 · 15:05V. Moshovskyi1.7311111010113D. Maltsev2.0068121282WSep 8 · 13:35V. Moshovskyi2.10121011123O. Storozhenko1.6710126101LSep 8 · 12:05V. Moshovskyi2.25111110992I. Pytsko1.57891211113WSep 1 · 18:05M. Potapov1.578670V. Moshovskyi2.251111113LSep 1 · 17:05V. Moshovskyi1.801031181M. Slozka1.9112114113LSep 1 · 16:05V. Moshovskyi1.67137117102D. Maltsev2.101111611123
I. Fashchevskyi10
LSep 20 · 22:15I. Fashchevskyi2.00118181162I. Pytsko1.73811206113LSep 20 · 21:15D. Maltsev1.731111113I. Fashchevskyi2.007560WSep 19 · 02:00I. Fashchevskyi2.751111115113V. Kovalchuk1.4076131192LSep 19 · 24:30I. Fashchevskyi2.50117671O. Budnikov1.5091111113LSep 18 · 23:00I. Fashchevskyi2.0012541152D. Maltsev1.731011118113LSep 18 · 21:30I. Fashchevskyi2.20118111032O. Storozhenko1.61711812113WSep 18 · 20:00I. Fashchevskyi2.0011912113I. Pytsko1.738111091LSep 16 · 10:35I. Fashchevskyi2.2071151242Y. Makovka1.611121110113LSep 16 · 09:05I. Fashchevskyi2.63112811102Y. Tebenko1.44711119123LSep 16 · 07:35I. Fashchevskyi1.91111281292I. Pytsko1.804141110113
Upcoming Matches
V. Moshovskyi
I. Fashchevskyi
Sep 21 · 01:15I. Fashchevskyi2.50V. Korobko1.50—Sep 21 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi1.83M. Potapov1.83—Sep 21 · 11:55I. Fashchevskyi1.83M. Potapov1.83—Sep 21 · 13:25I. Fashchevskyi2.63Y. Parahailo1.44—Sep 21 · 14:55I. Fashchevskyi2.20O. Storozhenko1.61—Sep 21 · 16:25I. Fashchevskyi2.00I. Pytsko1.73—Sep 21 · 17:55I. Fashchevskyi2.10D. Maltsev1.67—
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