TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11610121181012118
Mykhailo Potapov
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Fashchevskyi above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 99 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fashchevskyi 17–12 Mykhailo Potapov Mykhailo Potapov has won 12 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:33What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Potapov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-12 in 29
Fashchevskyi
Correct
gap of 5 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fashchevskyi 1445 vs Potapov 1554
Potapov
Wrong
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fashchevskyi 40% vs Potapov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fashchevskyi 40% vs Potapov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fashchevskyi -1 · Potapov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Potapov) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potapov form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFashchevskyi 2.00 / Potapov 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Potapov)+1.4pp
Setka Cup · #13166419
Fashchevskyi2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 84 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back25% 24 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Potapov1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 47 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it82% 41 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFashchevskyi7wins
AwayPotapov3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFashchevskyi leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFashchevskyi100%6 of 6
AwayPotapov75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fashchevskyi6Potapov4n = 10Fashchevskyi took 6 of 10
S2Fashchevskyi3Potapov7n = 10Potapov took 7 of 10
S3Fashchevskyi8Potapov2n = 10Fashchevskyi took 8 of 10
S4Fashchevskyi2Potapov6n = 8Potapov took 6 of 8
S5Fashchevskyi4Potapov0n = 4Fashchevskyi took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFashchevskyiPotapovF − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.638.2+0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFashchevskyiPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime293 / 592 vs 203 / 42749.5%47.5%293 / 592 vs 203 / 427Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovFashchevskyi 2.00/Potapov 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.1%
Potapov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 11:55I. Fashchevskyi5311101110113M. Potapov4661281282
LSep 21 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi2679100M. Potapov341111123
WSep 9 · 08:35I. Fashchevskyi45115117113M. Potapov4381161172
WSep 8 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi331111113M. Potapov225890
LSep 4 · 01:45I. Fashchevskyi31811661M. Potapov4111811113
WSep 2 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi46116117113M. Potapov4081141162
LAug 20 · 23:15I. Fashchevskyi28571151M. Potapov4111118113
WAug 12 · 07:35I. Fashchevskyi3611311113M. Potapov32611691
WJul 31 · 14:55I. Fashchevskyi4491112123M. Potapov3811710101
WJul 25 · 04:25I. Fashchevskyi44117114113M. Potapov4571181182
I. Fashchevskyi10
WSep 21 · 13:25I. Fashchevskyi2.6361111163Y. Parahailo1.441187141LSep 21 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi1.8379100M. Potapov1.831111123WSep 21 · 01:15V. Korobko1.537670I. Fashchevskyi2.381111113WSep 20 · 23:15V. Moshovskyi1.7311771492I. Fashchevskyi2.005111112113LSep 20 · 22:15I. Fashchevskyi2.00118181162I. Pytsko1.73811206113LSep 20 · 21:15D. Maltsev1.731111113I. Fashchevskyi2.007560WSep 19 · 02:00I. Fashchevskyi2.751111115113V. Kovalchuk1.4076131192LSep 19 · 24:30I. Fashchevskyi2.50117671O. Budnikov1.5091111113LSep 18 · 23:00I. Fashchevskyi2.0012541152D. Maltsev1.731011118113LSep 18 · 21:30I. Fashchevskyi2.20118111032O. Storozhenko1.61711812113
M. Potapov10
WSep 21 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi1.8379100M. Potapov1.831111123WSep 21 · 01:45M. Potapov2.10511119113I. Pytsko1.6711791152LSep 20 · 23:45D. Maltsev1.831111113M. Potapov1.837980LSep 20 · 21:45V. Moshovskyi2.25931412113M. Potapov1.571111121062LSep 20 · 20:45V. Korobko3.50101112113M. Potapov1.281281061WSep 12 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80821111113Y. Tebenko1.9111118992LSep 12 · 24:45M. Potapov1.25115541V. Korobko3.7581111113WSep 11 · 23:15M. Potapov2.20131110113R. Novak1.611181221LSep 11 · 21:45M. Potapov2.25711971O. Storozhenko1.5711511113LSep 11 · 20:15M. Potapov2.20891161I. Pytsko1.6111115113
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