TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Andrii Kurtenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118118511113––
Oleksandr Leonenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Leonenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Kurtenko above · Oleksandr Leonenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 68 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Oleksandr Leonenko at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kurtenko 35–32 Oleksandr Leonenko Oleksandr Leonenko has won 32 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:05What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kurtenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-32 in 67
Kurtenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurtenko 1414 vs Leonenko 1514
Leonenko
Wrong
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurtenko 40% vs Leonenko 60%
Leonenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurtenko 30% vs Leonenko 60%
Leonenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurtenko -2 · Leonenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Leonenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurtenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurtenko 1.80 / Leonenko 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Leonenko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13166354
Kurtenko1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 145 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it91% 82 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it80% 110 of 138
Leonenko1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 69 of 160
Down 0–1, comes back23% 19 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurtenko4wins
AwayLeonenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLeonenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurtenko75%3 of 4
AwayLeonenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurtenko4Leonenko6n = 10Leonenko took 6 of 10
S2Kurtenko7Leonenko3n = 10Kurtenko took 7 of 10
S3Kurtenko3Leonenko7n = 10Leonenko took 7 of 10
S4Kurtenko3Leonenko4n = 7Leonenko took 4 of 7
S5Kurtenko1Leonenko2n = 3Leonenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurtenkoLeonenkoK − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.038.0−1.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurtenkoLeonenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime346 / 663 vs 430 / 82952.2%51.9%346 / 663 vs 430 / 829Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LeonenkoKurtenko 1.80/Leonenko 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Leonenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kurtenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 16:30A. Kurtenko4891111892O. Leonenko47118611113
WAug 30 · 16:30A. Kurtenko43101111113O. Leonenko32128391
WAug 27 · 12:20A. Kurtenko331111113O. Leonenko249960
WAug 20 · 06:20A. Kurtenko3811115113O. Leonenko38991191
LAug 14 · 11:00A. Kurtenko197570O. Leonenko331111113
LJul 2 · 06:20A. Kurtenko391011991O. Leonenko4312911113
LJun 29 · 11:20A. Kurtenko2771190O. Leonenko351113113
LJun 28 · 15:30A. Kurtenko33713941O. Leonenko44111111113
LJun 14 · 19:50A. Kurtenko4011115942O. Leonenko45841111113
WJun 11 · 09:20A. Kurtenko50119811113O. Leonenko3931111952
A. Kurtenko10
LSep 21 · 10:20A. Kurtenko3.0031271162S. Hryhorenko1.361110119113LSep 21 · 08:50A. Kurtenko2.25911141392O. Osadchyi1.571161611113WSep 21 · 07:20A. Kurtenko1.9111911113E. Populovskyi1.80611691WSep 21 · 05:50A. Kurtenko2.10119411113S. Solomko1.6741111992LSep 20 · 12:50A. Kurtenko2.0013880S. Solomko1.731511113LSep 20 · 10:50O. Osadchyi1.611111113A. Kurtenko2.207770LSep 20 · 08:50A. Kotiash1.8331114123A. Kurtenko1.8311312101LSep 20 · 07:50A. Kurtenko1.8010119101E. Populovskyi1.9112911123LSep 20 · 06:50D. Khairov1.361112113A. Kurtenko3.0051020WSep 16 · 18:30B. Zaika1.5310811111A. Kurtenko2.3812118133
O. Leonenko10
WSep 21 · 10:50O. Leonenko1.91915126113O. Osadchyi1.801113101152WSep 21 · 09:50O. Leonenko2.204111113113S. Solomko1.61111351192LSep 21 · 08:20O. Leonenko1.9111613141S. Hryhorenko1.8081115163WSep 21 · 06:20O. Leonenko2.2571111113E. Populovskyi1.57115881LSep 17 · 11:35O. Leonenko2.20101111161O. Osadchyi1.6112813183WSep 17 · 09:35V. Kolesnykov1.28971191O. Leonenko3.5011114113LSep 17 · 08:35O. Leonenko1.83881151O. Volynets1.8311119113LSep 17 · 07:35I. Emets1.4461111113O. Leonenko2.63118991WSep 17 · 06:05O. Leonenko2.381511113F. Voinarovskyi1.5313460WSep 12 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.20411111103S. Solomko1.6111511982
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.