TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Oleksandr Leonenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
91115131210611115
Oleksandr Osadchyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Osadchyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Oleksandr Osadchyi below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 103 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Oleksandr Osadchyi at 54.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 54–48 Oleksandr Osadchyi Oleksandr Osadchyi has won 48 of their 102 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:33What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Osadchyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
54-48 in 102
Leonenko
Correct
gap of 6 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1502 vs Osadchyi 1537
Osadchyi
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 60% vs Osadchyi 80%
Osadchyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 60% vs Osadchyi 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko +1 · Osadchyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Osadchyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osadchyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 1.91 / Osadchyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Osadchyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13166486
Leonenko1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 69 of 160
Down 0–1, comes back23% 19 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Osadchyi1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 108 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it97% 57 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it83% 78 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLeonenko3wins
AwayOsadchyi7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOsadchyi leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayOsadchyi85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonenko3Osadchyi7n = 10Osadchyi took 7 of 10
S2Leonenko4Osadchyi6n = 10Osadchyi took 6 of 10
S3Leonenko4Osadchyi6n = 10Osadchyi took 6 of 10
S4Leonenko3Osadchyi4n = 7Osadchyi took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLeonenkoOsadchyiL − OBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.642.4−4.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoOsadchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime429 / 828 vs 442 / 86051.8%51.4%429 / 828 vs 442 / 860Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsadchyiLeonenko 1.91/Osadchyi 1.80
Miss
What we said
54%
Osadchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Leonenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 11:35O. Leonenko48101111161O. Osadchyi5112813183
WJun 11 · 10:20O. Leonenko4615117133O. Osadchyi4413911111
LJun 10 · 21:20O. Leonenko4914981172O. Osadchyi521211117113
LJun 7 · 21:20O. Leonenko33671191O. Osadchyi3811115113
LJun 3 · 15:50O. Leonenko182790O. Osadchyi331111113
WMay 24 · 16:50O. Leonenko451519113O. Osadchyi39131790
LMay 21 · 09:50O. Leonenko33861271O. Osadchyi43111110113
LMay 20 · 16:50O. Leonenko301010100O. Osadchyi361212123
LMay 18 · 07:20O. Leonenko31661181O. Osadchyi4211119113
WMay 13 · 19:50O. Leonenko43411611113O. Osadchyi4611911692
O. Leonenko10
LSep 21 · 11:50A. Kurtenko1.8011115113O. Leonenko1.91881131WSep 21 · 09:50O. Leonenko2.204111113113S. Solomko1.61111351192LSep 21 · 08:20O. Leonenko1.9111613141S. Hryhorenko1.8081115163WSep 21 · 06:20O. Leonenko2.2571111113E. Populovskyi1.57115881LSep 17 · 11:35O. Leonenko2.20101111161O. Osadchyi1.6112813183WSep 17 · 09:35V. Kolesnykov1.28971191O. Leonenko3.5011114113LSep 17 · 08:35O. Leonenko1.83881151O. Volynets1.8311119113LSep 17 · 07:35I. Emets1.4461111113O. Leonenko2.63118991WSep 17 · 06:05O. Leonenko2.381511113F. Voinarovskyi1.5313460WSep 12 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.20411111103S. Solomko1.6111511982
O. Osadchyi10
WSep 21 · 08:50A. Kurtenko2.25911141392O. Osadchyi1.571161611113WSep 21 · 07:50O. Osadchyi2.101111133S. Solomko1.6737110LSep 21 · 06:50S. Hryhorenko1.801111113O. Osadchyi1.918630WSep 20 · 11:50A. Kotiash1.4011881292O. Osadchyi2.754111110113WSep 20 · 10:50O. Osadchyi1.611111113A. Kurtenko2.207770WSep 20 · 09:50O. Osadchyi1.331111113E. Populovskyi3.259330LSep 20 · 08:20O. Osadchyi1.73821151D. Khairov2.0011117113LSep 20 · 06:20O. Osadchyi2.256740S. Solomko1.571111113WSep 17 · 11:35O. Leonenko2.20101111161O. Osadchyi1.6112813183WSep 17 · 10:35O. Volynets2.38116118102O. Osadchyi1.53511611123
Upcoming Matches
O. Leonenko
Nothing scheduled
O. Osadchyi
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