TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Oleksandr Leonenko
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711115118118––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:29 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeEduard Populovskyi to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Leonenko above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Eduard Populovskyi at 57.1%
72 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Leonenko 4–4 Eduard Populovskyi Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:29What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Populovskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonenko 1501 vs Populovskyi 1436
Leonenko
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonenko 40% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonenko 50% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonenko -1 · Populovskyi -3
Populovskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Populovskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonenko 2.25 / Populovskyi 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Populovskyi)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13166231
Leonenko2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 17)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 69 of 160
Down 0–1, comes back23% 19 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Populovskyi1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 102 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it97% 55 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it85% 75 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeLeonenko4wins
AwayPopulovskyi4wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonenko75%3 of 4
AwayPopulovskyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonenko4Populovskyi4n = 8split evenly
S2Leonenko4Populovskyi4n = 8split evenly
S3Leonenko2Populovskyi6n = 8Populovskyi took 6 of 8
S4Leonenko3Populovskyi4n = 7Populovskyi took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricLeonenkoPopulovskyiL − PBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match36.839.4−2.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonenkoPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime428 / 826 vs 339 / 69351.8%48.9%428 / 826 vs 339 / 693Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiLeonenko 2.25/Populovskyi 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Populovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Leonenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 21 · 06:20O. Leonenko4071111113E. Populovskyi32115881
LSep 11 · 18:30O. Leonenko33116971E. Populovskyi4291111113
WAug 27 · 09:20O. Leonenko4111118113E. Populovskyi30591151
LMay 21 · 08:20O. Leonenko196760E. Populovskyi331111113
WMay 20 · 21:50O. Leonenko45111166113E. Populovskyi4688111182
LJan 9 · 10:35O. Leonenko32611781E. Populovskyi4111811113
LDec 26 · 07:05O. Leonenko36861481E. Populovskyi45111112113
WDec 5 · 09:00O. Leonenko48116711133E. Populovskyi46611117112
O. Leonenko10
LSep 17 · 11:35O. Leonenko2.20101111161O. Osadchyi1.6112813183WSep 17 · 09:35V. Kolesnykov1.28971191O. Leonenko3.5011114113LSep 17 · 08:35O. Leonenko1.83881151O. Volynets1.8311119113LSep 17 · 07:35I. Emets1.4461111113O. Leonenko2.63118991WSep 17 · 06:05O. Leonenko2.381511113F. Voinarovskyi1.5313460WSep 12 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.20411111103S. Solomko1.6111511982WSep 12 · 16:30A. Kurtenko1.6791111892O. Leonenko2.10118611113LSep 12 · 14:30V. Smyk2.2511311343O. Leonenko1.5791161112WSep 12 · 13:00O. Leonenko3.5011211113O. Tymofeev1.28411581LSep 11 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.00116971E. Populovskyi1.7391111113
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 21 · 07:20A. Kurtenko1.9111911113E. Populovskyi1.80611691LSep 20 · 12:20D. Khairov1.831111113E. Populovskyi1.839340LSep 20 · 11:20S. Solomko1.229111110123E. Populovskyi4.00119812102LSep 20 · 09:50O. Osadchyi1.331111113E. Populovskyi3.259330WSep 20 · 07:50A. Kurtenko1.8010119101E. Populovskyi1.9112911123WSep 20 · 05:50A. Kotiash1.917511101E. Populovskyi1.8011119123LSep 19 · 19:00E. Populovskyi3.758740S. Solomko1.251111113LSep 19 · 17:00B. Zaika1.4011119123E. Populovskyi2.758911101LSep 19 · 15:00A. Martyniuk1.4091111103E. Populovskyi2.75117681WSep 11 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.00116971E. Populovskyi1.7391111113
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