TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Sep 21Finished
Cosmo Schmitt
Home
15.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1198116111315––
Rafael Turrini
Away
1.01
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:07 and never touched — 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeRafael Turrini to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingCosmo Schmitt above · Rafael Turrini below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 84 set 4, 13-15 — our read held Rafael Turrini at 60.2%
84 points played in total.
H2H Cosmo Schmitt 0–3 Rafael Turrini Cosmo Schmitt has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:07What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.01 (94%)
Turrini
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Turrini
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schmitt 1169 vs Turrini 2015
Turrini
Correct
both rated, 846 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schmitt 0% vs Turrini 80%
Turrini
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schmitt 10% vs Turrini 60%
Turrini
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schmitt -5 · Turrini +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 94% — Strong (leans Turrini) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Turrini form (80%) is below what odds imply (99%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchmitt 15.00 / Turrini 1.01
Signal prob.6% / 94%
Edge (Turrini)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13165509
Schmitt15.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog13% won 3 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back6% 1 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Turrini1.01
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite85% won 56 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it96% 45 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSchmitt0wins
AwayTurrini3wins
Turrini leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchmittn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayTurrini100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schmitt0Turrini3n = 3Turrini took 3 of 3
S2Schmitt0Turrini3n = 3Turrini took 3 of 3
S3Schmitt0Turrini3n = 3Turrini took 3 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away3100%
These 3 meetings
MetricSchmittTurriniS − TBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match20.733.7−13.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchmittTurriniBasisWin rate · lifetime9 / 61 vs 212 / 24814.8%85.5%9 / 61 vs 212 / 248Avg sets wonper match1.12.7per matchAvg pointsper match30.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TurriniSchmitt 15.00/Turrini 1.01
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
93.7%
Turrini · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Turrini won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 7 · 11:00C. Schmitt2310760R. Turrini341211113
LJun 1 · 11:00C. Schmitt2691070R. Turrini341112113
LMay 25 · 11:00C. Schmitt134450R. Turrini331111113
C. Schmitt10
LSep 21 · 13:00C. Schmitt5.00651161K. Zimmermann1.1411119113LSep 21 · 11:30M. Stefanidis1.401111118123C. Schmitt2.75139611102LSep 21 · 09:30S. Happek1.33911212113C. Schmitt3.25116111022LSep 21 · 07:30S. Almeida—1111113C. Schmitt—9850LSep 8 · 07:00S. Almeida1.7511911113C. Schmitt1.95911861WSep 7 · 17:30K. Waltl1.40116651C. Schmitt2.7571111113LSep 7 · 14:30M. Henninger1.0511116113C. Schmitt8.50751171LSep 7 · 13:00V. Senkbeil1.0861211113C. Schmitt7.001110351LSep 7 · 11:00R. Turrini1.011211113C. Schmitt13.0010760LSep 7 · 10:00K. Fadeev1.0311118113C. Schmitt10.00491161
R. Turrini10
WSep 21 · 13:30M. Stefanidis1.83711641R. Turrini1.8911611113WSep 21 · 12:00S. Happek15.00541591R. Turrini1.01111113113WSep 21 · 09:00S. Almeida2.59861171R. Turrini1.4511119113WSep 21 · 07:00O. Kosolosky6.50951181R. Turrini1.1011117113LSep 8 · 10:39K. Fadeev3.401111126113R. Turrini1.30134101192LSep 8 · 09:45M. Henninger4.801111113R. Turrini1.154490WSep 8 · 08:30R. Turrini1.131411113V. Senkbeil5.5012670LSep 8 · 06:30R. Turrini1.201211471K. Fadeev4.3314811113WSep 7 · 16:00R. Turrini1.041111113K. Waltl9.006470WSep 7 · 11:00R. Turrini1.011211113C. Schmitt13.0010760
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