TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Sep 21Finished
Sven Happek
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111162111210112
Cosmo Schmitt
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSven Happek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSven Happek above · Cosmo Schmitt below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 85 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Sven Happek at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Sven Happek 2–0 Cosmo Schmitt Cosmo Schmitt has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:04What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Happek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Happek 1231 vs Schmitt 1201
Happek
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Happek 0% vs Schmitt 20%
Schmitt
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Happek 30% vs Schmitt 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Happek -5 · Schmitt -2
Happek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Happek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schmitt form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHappek 1.33 / Schmitt 3.25
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Happek)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13165521
Happek1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite38% won 6 of 16
Schmitt3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog13% won 3 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back6% 1 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeHappek2wins
AwaySchmitt0wins
Happek leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricHappekSchmittH − SBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match36.025.5+10.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHappekSchmittBasisWin rate · lifetime41 / 157 vs 9 / 5826.1%15.5%41 / 157 vs 9 / 58Avg sets wonper match1.31.1per matchAvg pointsper match31.430.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HappekHappek 1.33/Schmitt 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.9%
Happek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Happek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 6 · 08:00S. Happek3961111113C. Schmitt32115791
WSep 8 · 10:00S. Happek331111113C. Schmitt197750
S. Happek10
LSep 21 · 08:00S. Happek—8880M. Stefanidis—1111113LSep 15 · 07:30S. Happek4.157670J. Loffler1.181111113LSep 14 · 16:30S. Happek15.006670I. Bertrand1.011111113LSep 14 · 14:30S. Happek7.00126361Y. Su1.08101111113LSep 14 · 12:30S. Almeida2.301111123S. Happek1.5576100WSep 14 · 10:30J. Lama1.28115111172S. Happek3.50311813113WSep 14 · 09:00S. Happek8.5011611113E. Mendes1.05711691LSep 14 · 07:30S. Happek2.058111261T. Saltzer1.6811914113LAug 7 · 07:30D. Zech1.831111113S. Happek1.839270WAug 6 · 17:30S. Happek1.803111110113T. Freund1.9111631272
C. Schmitt10
LSep 21 · 07:30S. Almeida—1111113C. Schmitt—9850LSep 8 · 07:00S. Almeida1.7511911113C. Schmitt1.95911861WSep 7 · 17:30K. Waltl1.40116651C. Schmitt2.7571111113LSep 7 · 14:30M. Henninger1.0511116113C. Schmitt8.50751171LSep 7 · 13:00V. Senkbeil1.0861211113C. Schmitt7.001110351LSep 7 · 11:00R. Turrini1.011211113C. Schmitt13.0010760LSep 7 · 10:00K. Fadeev1.0311118113C. Schmitt10.00491161WSep 7 · 06:30M. Stefanidis—111091172C. Schmitt—912113113LJul 7 · 07:30D. Rinderer1.06111011113C. Schmitt8.00712561LJul 6 · 17:30C. Schmitt—571361T. Saltzer—111111113
Upcoming Matches
S. Happek
C. Schmitt
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.