TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Sep 21Finished
Cosmo Schmitt
Home
5.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611511119611––
Karl Zimmermann
Away
1.14
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:06 and never touched — 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeKarl Zimmermann to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingCosmo Schmitt above · Karl Zimmermann below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 70 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Karl Zimmermann at 60.2%
70 points played in total.
H2H Cosmo Schmitt 0–1 Karl Zimmermann Cosmo Schmitt has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:06What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Zimmermann
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Schmitt 1172 vs Zimmermann 1619
Zimmermann
Correct
both rated, 447 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schmitt 20% vs Zimmermann 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schmitt 20% vs Zimmermann 50%
Zimmermann
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schmitt -4 · Zimmermann -2
Schmitt
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Zimmermann) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zimmermann form (20%) is below what odds imply (88%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchmitt 5.00 / Zimmermann 1.14
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Zimmermann)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13165514
Schmitt5.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog13% won 3 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back6% 1 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Zimmermann1.14
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite88% won 15 of 17
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSchmitt0wins
AwayZimmermann1wins
Zimmermann leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSchmittZimmermannS − ZBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match24.041.0−17.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchmittZimmermannBasisWin rate · lifetime9 / 60 vs 32 / 5715%56.1%9 / 60 vs 32 / 57Avg sets wonper match1.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match30.835.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZimmermannSchmitt 5.00/Zimmermann 1.14
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.4%
Zimmermann · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zimmermann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJun 1 · 10:00C. Schmitt24171151K. Zimmermann4111118113
C. Schmitt10
LSep 21 · 11:30M. Stefanidis1.401111118123C. Schmitt2.75139611102LSep 21 · 09:30S. Happek1.33911212113C. Schmitt3.25116111022LSep 21 · 07:30S. Almeida—1111113C. Schmitt—9850LSep 8 · 07:00S. Almeida1.7511911113C. Schmitt1.95911861WSep 7 · 17:30K. Waltl1.40116651C. Schmitt2.7571111113LSep 7 · 14:30M. Henninger1.0511116113C. Schmitt8.50751171LSep 7 · 13:00V. Senkbeil1.0861211113C. Schmitt7.001110351LSep 7 · 11:00R. Turrini1.011211113C. Schmitt13.0010760LSep 7 · 10:00K. Fadeev1.0311118113C. Schmitt10.00491161WSep 7 · 06:30M. Stefanidis—111091172C. Schmitt—912113113
K. Zimmermann10
LSep 21 · 14:30S. Almeida2.05116115113K. Zimmermann1.7061151162LSep 21 · 11:00O. Kosolosky1.061111113K. Zimmermann8.008740LSep 21 · 10:00M. Stefanidis—1111911153K. Zimmermann—961113132WSep 21 · 06:30A. Moreno3.25712521K. Zimmermann1.33111011113LSep 18 · 08:00D. Rinderer1.221111113K. Zimmermann4.002480LSep 18 · 07:00K. Zimmermann2.63111113882M. Scharrer1.446131111113WSep 17 · 15:30J. Harencak2.63113771K. Zimmermann1.4441111113WSep 17 · 13:30L. Qiu1.2081211342K. Zimmermann4.331110611113LSep 17 · 12:00J. Loffler1.1811134113K. Zimmermann4.152111121WSep 17 · 09:00D. Zech2.7511871172K. Zimmermann1.40911118113
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