TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Sep 21Finished
Alex Moreno
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111210511211––
Karl Zimmermann
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:04 and never touched — 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeKarl Zimmermann to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlex Moreno above · Karl Zimmermann below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 69 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Karl Zimmermann at 60.2%
69 points played in total.
H2H Alex Moreno 0–1 Karl Zimmermann Alex Moreno has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:04What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Zimmermann
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Moreno 1190 vs Zimmermann 1642
Zimmermann
Correct
both rated, 452 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moreno 20% vs Zimmermann 40%
Zimmermann
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moreno 20% vs Zimmermann 50%
Zimmermann
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moreno -1 · Zimmermann -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Zimmermann) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zimmermann form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoreno 3.25 / Zimmermann 1.33
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Zimmermann)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13163768
Moreno3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 27 days ago (Aug 25) · back after a break
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog13% won 8 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 39
Zimmermann1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 18)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite88% won 15 of 17
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMoreno0wins
AwayZimmermann1wins
Zimmermann leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMorenoZimmermannM − ZBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match26.043.0−17.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMorenoZimmermannBasisWin rate · lifetime18 / 126 vs 32 / 5514.3%58.2%18 / 126 vs 32 / 55Avg sets wonper match0.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match28.335.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZimmermannMoreno 3.25/Zimmermann 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.9%
Zimmermann · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zimmermann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 21 · 06:30A. Moreno26712521K. Zimmermann43111011113
A. Moreno10
LAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113WAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113LAug 24 · 12:30A. Moreno6.00811961M. Henninger1.1111611113LAug 24 · 11:00A. Moreno7.507760V. Yefimov1.071111113WAug 24 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.08167111162A. Moreno7.00181196113LAug 24 · 07:00A. Moreno—861161E. Huzsvar—11115113LAug 21 · 08:15S. Almeida1.401111113A. Moreno2.767590LAug 20 · 16:30E. Huzsvar—11115113A. Moreno—581171LAug 20 · 15:30A. Moreno15.009510D. Rinderer1.011111113
K. Zimmermann10
LSep 18 · 08:00D. Rinderer1.221111113K. Zimmermann4.002480LSep 18 · 07:00K. Zimmermann2.63111113882M. Scharrer1.446131111113WSep 17 · 15:30J. Harencak2.63113771K. Zimmermann1.4441111113WSep 17 · 13:30L. Qiu1.2081211342K. Zimmermann4.331110611113LSep 17 · 12:00J. Loffler1.1811134113K. Zimmermann4.152111121WSep 17 · 09:00D. Zech2.7511871172K. Zimmermann1.40911118113WSep 17 · 07:00E. Mendes1.201151171K. Zimmermann4.3381113113LSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 08:30S. Almeida—119111172K. Zimmermann—131199113
Upcoming Matches
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