TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Sep 21Finished
Sven Happek
Home
15.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5114111513911––
Rafael Turrini
Away
1.01
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:05 and never touched — 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeRafael Turrini to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSven Happek above · Rafael Turrini below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 79 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Rafael Turrini at 75.9%
79 points played in total.
H2H Sven Happek 0–9 Rafael Turrini Sven Happek has won 0 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:05What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.01 (94%)
Turrini
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-9 in 9
Turrini
Correct
gap of 9 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Happek 1245 vs Turrini 2012
Turrini
Correct
both rated, 768 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Happek 20% vs Turrini 60%
Turrini
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Happek 30% vs Turrini 60%
Turrini
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Happek +1 · Turrini +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 94% — Strong (leans Turrini) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Turrini form (60%) is below what odds imply (99%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHappek 15.00 / Turrini 1.01
Signal prob.6% / 94%
Edge (Turrini)+0.5pp
Challenger Series TT · #13165516
Happek15.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog8% won 4 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back5% 2 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Turrini1.01
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite85% won 56 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it96% 45 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeHappek0wins
AwayTurrini9wins
Turrini leads 9–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHappekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTurrini100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Happek2Turrini7n = 9Turrini took 7 of 9
S2Happek0Turrini9n = 9Turrini took 9 of 9
S3Happek0Turrini9n = 9Turrini took 9 of 9
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away778%
These 9 meetings
MetricHappekTurriniH − TBasisWins09−9in 9 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match20.235.8−15.6per matchSweeps07−73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHappekTurriniBasisWin rate · lifetime42 / 158 vs 210 / 24626.6%85.4%42 / 158 vs 210 / 246Avg sets wonper match1.32.7per matchAvg pointsper match31.437.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TurriniHappek 15.00/Turrini 1.01
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
94.2%
Turrini · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Turrini won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LMay 21 · 07:00S. Happek177550R. Turrini331111113
LApr 20 · 09:00S. Happek2281040R. Turrini341112113
LMar 10 · 08:30S. Happek154650R. Turrini331111113
LDec 15 · 15:00S. Happek31116771R. Turrini4291111113
LNov 10 · 14:30S. Happek40178691R. Turrini48151111113
LOct 20 · 08:00S. Happek188640R. Turrini331111113
LOct 6 · 14:00S. Happek101630R. Turrini331111113
LSep 23 · 07:30S. Happek135710R. Turrini331111113
LJan 27 · 18:00S. Happek166550R. Turrini331111113
S. Happek10
WSep 21 · 09:30S. Happek1.33911212113C. Schmitt3.25116111022LSep 21 · 08:00S. Happek—8880M. Stefanidis—1111113LSep 15 · 07:30S. Happek4.157670J. Loffler1.181111113LSep 14 · 16:30S. Happek15.006670I. Bertrand1.011111113LSep 14 · 14:30S. Happek7.00126361Y. Su1.08101111113LSep 14 · 12:30S. Almeida2.301111123S. Happek1.5576100WSep 14 · 10:30J. Lama1.28115111172S. Happek3.50311813113WSep 14 · 09:00S. Happek8.5011611113E. Mendes1.05711691LSep 14 · 07:30S. Happek2.058111261T. Saltzer1.6811914113LAug 7 · 07:30D. Zech1.831111113S. Happek1.839270
R. Turrini10
WSep 21 · 09:00S. Almeida2.59861171R. Turrini1.4511119113WSep 21 · 07:00O. Kosolosky6.50951181R. Turrini1.1011117113LSep 8 · 10:39K. Fadeev3.401111126113R. Turrini1.30134101192LSep 8 · 09:45M. Henninger4.801111113R. Turrini1.154490WSep 8 · 08:30R. Turrini1.131411113V. Senkbeil5.5012670LSep 8 · 06:30R. Turrini1.201211471K. Fadeev4.3314811113WSep 7 · 16:00R. Turrini1.041111113K. Waltl9.006470LSep 7 · 12:30R. Turrini1.101051541M. Henninger6.50121113113WSep 7 · 11:00R. Turrini1.011211113C. Schmitt13.0010760WSep 7 · 08:30M. Stefanidis6.258180R. Turrini1.081111113
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