TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Sep 21Finished
Alex Moreno
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511411911––––
Cosmo Schmitt
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAlex Moreno to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAlex Moreno above · Cosmo Schmitt below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 51 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Alex Moreno at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Alex Moreno 1–1 Cosmo Schmitt Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:08What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Schmitt
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Moreno 1140 vs Schmitt 1192
Schmitt
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moreno 0% vs Schmitt 0%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moreno 10% vs Schmitt 10%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moreno -6 · Schmitt -6
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Schmitt) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schmitt form (0%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoreno 2.10 / Schmitt 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Schmitt)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13165506
Moreno2.10
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog13% won 8 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 39
Schmitt1.67
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMoreno1wins
AwaySchmitt1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricMorenoSchmittM − SBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match31.536.0−4.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMorenoSchmittBasisWin rate · lifetime18 / 131 vs 10 / 6313.7%15.9%18 / 131 vs 10 / 63Avg sets wonper match0.91.1per matchAvg pointsper match28.230.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchmittMoreno 2.10/Schmitt 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Schmitt · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Schmitt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 21 · 17:00A. Moreno185490C. Schmitt331111113
WMay 26 · 08:30A. Moreno45111211113C. Schmitt399101371
A. Moreno10
LSep 21 · 15:00A. Moreno3.771171091M. Stefanidis1.2391112113LSep 21 · 14:00A. Moreno2.257980S. Happek1.571111113LSep 21 · 10:30A. Moreno—79120S. Almeida—1111143LSep 21 · 08:30A. Moreno8.506840O. Kosolosky1.051111113LSep 21 · 06:30A. Moreno3.25712521K. Zimmermann1.33111011113LAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113WAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113LAug 24 · 12:30A. Moreno6.00811961M. Henninger1.1111611113LAug 24 · 11:00A. Moreno7.507760V. Yefimov1.071111113
C. Schmitt10
LSep 21 · 15:30C. Schmitt15.001186131R. Turrini1.0191111153LSep 21 · 13:00C. Schmitt5.00651161K. Zimmermann1.1411119113LSep 21 · 11:30M. Stefanidis1.401111118123C. Schmitt2.75139611102LSep 21 · 09:30S. Happek1.33911212113C. Schmitt3.25116111022LSep 21 · 07:30S. Almeida—1111113C. Schmitt—9850LSep 8 · 07:00S. Almeida1.7511911113C. Schmitt1.95911861WSep 7 · 17:30K. Waltl1.40116651C. Schmitt2.7571111113LSep 7 · 14:30M. Henninger1.0511116113C. Schmitt8.50751171LSep 7 · 13:00V. Senkbeil1.0861211113C. Schmitt7.001110351LSep 7 · 11:00R. Turrini1.011211113C. Schmitt13.0010760
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.