TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Zmijewski vs Jacek Zelezik 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Artur Zmijewski
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115611311119311
Jacek Zelezik
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:52 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtur Zmijewski above · Jacek Zelezik below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 81 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Artur Zmijewski at 56.2%
81 points played in total.
H2H Artur Zmijewski 4–5 Jacek Zelezik Artur Zmijewski has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Zelezik beat Zmijewski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:52What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Zelezik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmijewski 1397 vs Zelezik 1495
Zelezik
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmijewski 40% vs Zelezik 80%
Zelezik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmijewski 50% vs Zelezik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmijewski -1 · Zelezik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmijewski 1.83 / Zelezik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zelezik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13165475
Zmijewski1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Zelezik1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeZmijewski4wins
AwayZelezik5wins
6 of 9 to a deciderZelezik leads 5–4, and 6 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmijewski33.3%1 of 3
AwayZelezik50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmijewski3Zelezik6n = 9Zelezik took 6 of 9
S2Zmijewski4Zelezik5n = 9Zelezik took 5 of 9
S3Zmijewski5Zelezik4n = 9Zmijewski took 5 of 9
S4Zmijewski4Zelezik3n = 7Zmijewski took 4 of 7
S5Zmijewski3Zelezik3n = 6split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricZmijewskiZelezikZmijewski − ZelezikBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match41.141.10.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmijewskiZelezikBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 160 vs 391 / 72158.8%54.2%94 / 160 vs 391 / 721Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikZmijewski 1.83/Zelezik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 22 · 01:30A. Zmijewski3411631132J. Zelezik47511119113
LSep 21 · 20:05A. Zmijewski197930J. Zelezik331111113
WSep 2 · 22:55A. Zmijewski50811118123J. Zelezik50119911102
WSep 2 · 16:55A. Zmijewski331111113J. Zelezik146440
LAug 21 · 02:45A. Zmijewski50121151392J. Zelezik531061115113
WAug 20 · 23:05A. Zmijewski501051113113J. Zelezik50121181182
WAug 20 · 24:10A. Zmijewski49971111113J. Zelezik4111118382
LAug 19 · 20:30A. Zmijewski34911681J. Zelezik3411111113
LAug 11 · 01:10A. Zmijewski51991111112J. Zelezik48111158133
A. Zmijewski10
LSep 22 · 24:10K. Kwiatkowski2.381161112133A. Zmijewski1.53811714112WSep 21 · 23:30M. Baran2.7513770A. Zmijewski1.401511113LSep 21 · 22:50A. Zmijewski1.2548111182M. Karpiuk3.75111186113WSep 21 · 21:45A. Zmijewski1.611111113M. Lewczuk2.209780LSep 21 · 20:05A. Zmijewski1.917930J. Zelezik1.801111113LSep 21 · 18:30K. Kwiatkowski2.2091111113A. Zmijewski1.61116561WSep 21 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10111661A. Zmijewski1.6711911113WSep 21 · 16:55A. Zmijewski1.22101114113M. Karpiuk4.001241251WSep 21 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.531111113M. Baran2.388730LSep 21 · 02:10A. Zmijewski1.405128111J. Skorupa2.75111011133
J. Zelezik10
LSep 22 · 24:50M. Karpiuk3.0011712113J. Zelezik1.369111091WSep 21 · 23:10K. Kwiatkowski2.38781191J. Zelezik1.5311116113WSep 21 · 22:30M. Lewczuk2.10111011582J. Zelezik1.67612711113WSep 21 · 21:00M. Baran2.38511681J. Zelezik1.5311811113WSep 21 · 20:05A. Zmijewski1.917930J. Zelezik1.801111113LSep 21 · 19:20M. Karpiuk3.2561111113J. Zelezik1.33117861LSep 21 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski2.50111164123J. Zelezik1.50941111102LSep 21 · 16:35M. Baran2.381111113J. Zelezik1.532690WSep 21 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.1013117572J. Zelezik1.671151111113WSep 18 · 04:40A. Krezel2.604780J. Zelezik1.341111113
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