TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Oldrich Stehlik
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113119116––––
Anton Veliiev
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:02 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeAnton Veliiev to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOldrich Stehlik above · Anton Veliiev below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-5
Point 46 set 3, 7-5 — our read held Anton Veliiev at 58.3%
46 points drawn · the score is 5 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Oldrich Stehlik 0–2 Anton Veliiev Oldrich Stehlik has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Veliiev beat Stehlik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:02What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stehlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stehlik 1654 vs Veliiev 1731
Veliiev
Wrong
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stehlik 40% vs Veliiev 60%
Veliiev
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stehlik 40% vs Veliiev 80%
Veliiev
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stehlik -2 · Veliiev -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Stehlik) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Veliiev form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStehlik 1.67 / Veliiev 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Stehlik)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13164367
Stehlik1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 39 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it82% 27 of 33
Veliiev2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 6 of 16
Down 0–1, comes back27% 3 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeStehlik0wins
AwayVeliiev2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderVeliiev leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricStehlikVeliievS − VBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match39.547.0−7.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStehlikVeliievBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 254 vs 134 / 22653.9%59.3%137 / 254 vs 134 / 226Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StehlikStehlik 1.67/Veliiev 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Stehlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stehlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 20 · 11:05O. Stehlik3913112672A. Veliiev501161111113
LSep 19 · 15:05O. Stehlik40991391A. Veliiev44111111113
O. Stehlik10
LSep 20 · 12:05O. Stehlik1.918960O. Polak1.801111113LSep 20 · 11:05O. Stehlik2.0013112672A. Veliiev1.731161111113WSep 20 · 10:05O. Stehlik1.73111111113J. Ruzicka2.00513951WSep 19 · 17:15M. Mastera2.007770O. Stehlik1.731111113LSep 19 · 16:05O. Stehlik1.739850M. Mastera2.001111113LSep 19 · 15:05O. Stehlik1.44991391A. Veliiev2.63111111113LSep 19 · 14:05O. Stehlik1.80811671O. Polak1.9111811113LSep 17 · 21:33O. Stehlik2.50117691T. Bartik1.5051111113WSep 17 · 20:35O. Stehlik1.501111113T. Trnka2.507860WSep 17 · 19:05T. Bartik1.44116101172O. Stehlik2.63511129113
A. Veliiev10
LSep 20 · 12:35A. Veliiev1.807890J. Ruzicka1.911111113WSep 20 · 11:05O. Stehlik2.0013112672A. Veliiev1.731161111113LSep 20 · 10:35O. Polak1.8311911113A. Veliiev1.83811871WSep 19 · 17:43A. Veliiev1.801311113O. Polak1.9111250WSep 19 · 16:35A. Veliiev2.639111110113O. Polak1.4411741252WSep 19 · 15:05O. Stehlik1.44991391A. Veliiev2.63111111113WSep 19 · 14:35M. Mastera1.40117591A. Veliiev2.7561111113WJul 24 · 22:30K. Guzy2.2091111141A. Veliiev1.5811138163WJul 24 · 20:30P. Kos3.2057110A. Veliiev1.271111133WJul 24 · 19:30T. Stachera2.253550A. Veliiev1.531111113
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