TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ondrej Polak
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111186111012––
Jakub Ruzicka
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:02 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeOndrej Polak to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Polak above · Jakub Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-10
Point 74 set 4, 9-10 — our read held Ondrej Polak at 62.1%
74 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Ondrej Polak 7–7 Jakub Ruzicka Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Polak beat Ruzicka 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:02What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Polak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polak 1782 vs Ruzicka 1638
Polak
Wrong
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 100% vs Ruzicka 20%
Polak
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 70% vs Ruzicka 30%
Polak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak +5 · Ruzicka +1
Polak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Polak) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruzicka form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.33 / Ruzicka 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Polak)+3.8pp
TT Cup · #13164366
Polak1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 29 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it75% 21 of 28
Ruzicka3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 32 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back13% 6 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolak5wins
AwayRuzicka5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolak25%1 of 4
AwayRuzicka33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak4Ruzicka6n = 10Ruzicka took 6 of 10
S2Polak6Ruzicka4n = 10Polak took 6 of 10
S3Polak5Ruzicka5n = 10split evenly
S4Polak6Ruzicka3n = 9Polak took 6 of 9
S5Polak2Ruzicka3n = 5Ruzicka took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolakRuzickaP − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.339.9+1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 160 vs 51 / 13058.8%39.2%94 / 160 vs 51 / 130Avg sets wonper match2.31.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakPolak 1.33/Ruzicka 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.7%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 11:35O. Polak3961111113J. Ruzicka29115941
WSep 18 · 12:35O. Polak331111113J. Ruzicka197480
LSep 10 · 16:05O. Polak3311551112J. Ruzicka49811118113
WAug 12 · 13:35O. Polak53911814113J. Ruzicka49116111292
LAug 12 · 12:05O. Polak36891181J. Ruzicka4211119113
LJul 4 · 07:05O. Polak4391141182J. Ruzicka44115116113
WJul 3 · 17:20O. Polak4181111113J. Ruzicka24115711
LJul 3 · 15:05O. Polak35148581J. Ruzicka45121111113
WJun 30 · 13:05O. Polak55951111193J. Ruzicka55111188172
LJun 30 · 10:35O. Polak4511117972J. Ruzicka43371111113
O. Polak10
WSep 20 · 12:05O. Stehlik1.918960O. Polak1.801111113WSep 20 · 11:35J. Ruzicka1.80115941O. Polak1.9161111113WSep 20 · 10:35O. Polak1.8311911113A. Veliiev1.83811871WSep 20 · 09:39T. Trnka2.00961191O. Polak1.7311118113WSep 20 · 08:05O. Polak1.801111113S. Vyskocil1.915680LSep 20 · 07:05O. Polak1.5710770T. Trnka2.251211113WSep 20 · 06:05O. Polak1.401111113J. Ruzicka2.757790LSep 19 · 17:43A. Veliiev1.801311113O. Polak1.9111250LSep 19 · 16:35A. Veliiev2.639111110113O. Polak1.4411741252WSep 19 · 15:35O. Polak1.611111113M. Mastera2.206960
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 20 · 12:35A. Veliiev1.807890J. Ruzicka1.911111113LSep 20 · 11:35J. Ruzicka1.80115941O. Polak1.9161111113LSep 20 · 10:05O. Stehlik1.73111111113J. Ruzicka2.00513951LSep 18 · 13:04J. Ruzicka2.5091090F. Karel1.501112113LSep 18 · 12:35J. Ruzicka1.837480O. Polak1.831111113WSep 18 · 11:05T. Bartik1.61117119102J. Ruzicka2.20911911123LSep 18 · 10:35F. Karel1.6711117113J. Ruzicka2.10551141LSep 17 · 21:05J. Ruzicka—1110118122T. Trnka—912711143LSep 17 · 20:05T. Bartik1.361511106123J. Ruzicka3.001361211102WSep 17 · 19:35T. Trnka2.001113111192J. Ruzicka1.73715413113
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