TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Tomas Rein
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214611611––––
Jaroslav Dohnal
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:13 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Jaroslav Dohnal below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 60 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 55.5%
60 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 13–26 Jaroslav Dohnal Tomas Rein has won 13 of their 39 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:13What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Dohnal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-26 in 39
Dohnal
Correct
gap of 13 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1403 vs Dohnal 1472
Dohnal
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 40% vs Dohnal 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 40% vs Dohnal 20%
Rein
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein -2 · Dohnal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Dohnal) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dohnal form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 2.38 / Dohnal 1.53
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Dohnal)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13163410
Rein2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 92 of 277
Down 0–1, comes back21% 37 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 94
Dohnal1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 117 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it92% 59 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it69% 84 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRein5wins
AwayDohnal5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDohnal37.5%3 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein2Dohnal8n = 10Dohnal took 8 of 10
S2Rein6Dohnal4n = 10Rein took 6 of 10
S3Rein4Dohnal6n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S4Rein6Dohnal3n = 9Rein took 6 of 9
S5Rein3Dohnal2n = 5Rein took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricReinDohnalR − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.642.5−3.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinDohnalBasisWin rate · lifetime387 / 846 vs 391 / 66445.7%58.9%387 / 846 vs 391 / 664Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.940.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalRein 2.38/Dohnal 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.8%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dohnal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 22:04T. Rein3410113101J. Dohnal4012511123
WSep 19 · 19:55T. Rein48711711123J. Dohnal48117119102
LSep 8 · 21:48T. Rein205870J. Dohnal331111113
LSep 8 · 18:20T. Rein4598111162J. Dohnal46111167113
WAug 30 · 10:20T. Rein3961111113J. Dohnal30117661
WAug 29 · 14:05T. Rein43331211143J. Dohnal521111108122
LAug 29 · 12:25T. Rein33146491J. Dohnal45121111113
WAug 25 · 17:30T. Rein3741111113J. Dohnal34119771
WAug 25 · 16:50T. Rein50911711123J. Dohnal49118119102
LAug 13 · 18:20T. Rein3711115552J. Dohnal48871111113
T. Rein10
LSep 19 · 22:04T. Rein2.2510113101J. Dohnal1.5712511123LSep 19 · 20:55T. Rein2.759860C. Kratochvil1.401111113WSep 19 · 19:55T. Rein2.63711711123J. Dohnal1.44117119102WSep 19 · 18:55T. Rein2.40511411113B. Budik1.5111711892LSep 16 · 22:38R. Muller1.2810111011113T. Rein3.5012812362WSep 16 · 21:25J. Cousin1.5741111992T. Rein2.25119411113LSep 16 · 20:25T. Rein2.00713891R. Muller1.73111111113WSep 16 · 18:55C. Kratochvil1.2841060T. Rein3.501112113LSep 16 · 13:59V. Koutnik1.6111115113T. Rein2.20951181LSep 16 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.61118711113T. Rein2.2051111572
J. Dohnal10
WSep 19 · 22:04T. Rein2.2510113101J. Dohnal1.5712511123LSep 19 · 21:25J. Dohnal2.1095111182B. Budik1.53111169113LSep 19 · 19:55T. Rein2.63711711123J. Dohnal1.44117119102LSep 19 · 19:25C. Kratochvil2.381211153J. Dohnal1.53108140WSep 13 · 17:53J. Cousin2.50331121J. Dohnal1.5011117113LSep 13 · 16:55J. Dohnal1.501110851J. Cousin2.5061211113LSep 13 · 15:55J. Dohnal1.839111121P. Vodal1.8311138113LSep 13 · 14:55J. Dohnal2.20781191T. Hnizdil1.6111117113LSep 12 · 22:30J. Sebl2.25111011113J. Dohnal1.57812961LSep 12 · 20:55M. Boltik2.10111257123J. Dohnal1.678101111102
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