TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Michal Nemec
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
51111814125111315
Lukas Pour
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Nemec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Lukas Pour below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 13-15
Point 105 set 5, 13-15 — our read held Michal Nemec at 54.0%
105 points played in total.
H2H Michal Nemec 16–16 Lukas Pour Dead even across their 32 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:27What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pour
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-16 in 32
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nemec 1309 vs Pour 1283
Nemec
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nemec 40% vs Pour 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nemec 60% vs Pour 40%
Nemec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nemec -1 · Pour -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nemec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pour form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 1.83 / Pour 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Nemec)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13163058
Nemec1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Pour1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNemec7wins
AwayPour3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderNemec leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNemec100%6 of 6
AwayPour75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nemec6Pour4n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10
S2Nemec5Pour5n = 10split evenly
S3Nemec5Pour5n = 10split evenly
S4Nemec4Pour4n = 8split evenly
S5Nemec4Pour1n = 5Nemec took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNemecPourN − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.340.8−0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecPourBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 766 vs 69 / 15747.4%44%363 / 766 vs 69 / 157Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NemecNemec 1.83/Pour 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Nemec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pour won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 07:50M. Nemec48511145132L. Pour571181211153
WSep 10 · 13:49M. Nemec50771113123L. Pour481111511102
LSep 10 · 10:50M. Nemec3961013101L. Pour46111211123
WAug 2 · 10:20M. Nemec41111153113L. Pour4396111162
WJul 26 · 10:50M. Nemec3811511113L. Pour27311581
WJul 19 · 11:50M. Nemec331111113L. Pour239770
WMay 10 · 07:50M. Nemec551713311113L. Pour57151511792
WApr 23 · 15:50M. Nemec45111193113L. Pour4147111182
WApr 4 · 14:35M. Nemec3611113113L. Pour33881161
LApr 4 · 11:55M. Nemec185940L. Pour331111113
M. Nemec10
LSep 20 · 06:20R. Zeman1.41131111113M. Nemec2.60155381WSep 18 · 17:25M. Nemec1.91911911153M. Kolbusovsky1.80118112132LSep 18 · 16:50R. Zeman1.361113133M. Nemec3.00811110LSep 18 · 15:50M. Nemec2.385790P. Cibik1.531111113WSep 18 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.259416101M. Nemec1.57111114123WSep 17 · 21:53M. Dlask1.6799110M. Nemec2.101111133WSep 17 · 20:50M. Nemec2.6313177143M. Dlask1.44111511121LSep 17 · 19:20O. Sebek3.4011101112113M. Nemec1.3081221462WSep 17 · 18:50M. Kolbusovsky2.25411341M. Nemec1.5711911113WSep 15 · 21:20M. Nemec2.0011101311113M. Dlask1.7371215652
L. Pour10
WSep 20 · 08:20R. Zeman1.421174101L. Pour2.6591111123LSep 20 · 06:50L. Pour1.40511951O. Sebek2.7511811113LSep 10 · 13:49M. Nemec1.67771113123L. Pour2.101111511102WSep 10 · 12:20O. Sebek2.006990L. Pour1.731111113LSep 10 · 11:50M. Kolbusovsky1.73101211113L. Pour2.001210781WSep 10 · 10:50L. Pour1.91111211123M. Nemec1.8061013101WAug 2 · 13:28L. Pour2.3812118113J. Rolik1.531061121WAug 2 · 12:20L. Pour1.831412116113J. Rolik1.83161091182LAug 2 · 11:20L. Pour3.0011301182R. Zeman1.36911118113LAug 2 · 10:20L. Pour1.8396111162M. Nemec1.83111153113
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