TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Christian Kratochvil
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111191210711411
Lukas Dominik Rek
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Dominik Rek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingChristian Kratochvil above · Lukas Dominik Rek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 92 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Lukas Dominik Rek at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Christian Kratochvil 3–3 Lukas Dominik Rek Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:16What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Rek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kratochvil 1452 vs Rek 1536
Rek
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kratochvil 60% vs Rek 80%
Rek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kratochvil 50% vs Rek 70%
Rek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kratochvil -1 · Rek +4
Rek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Rek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKratochvil 2.00 / Rek 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Rek)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13161658
Kratochvil2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 22 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back27% 7 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Rek1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 18)
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 68 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it76% 50 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKratochvil3wins
AwayRek3wins
4 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKratochviln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayRek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kratochvil1Rek5n = 6Rek took 5 of 6
S2Kratochvil5Rek1n = 6Kratochvil took 5 of 6
S3Kratochvil3Rek3n = 6split evenly
S4Kratochvil5Rek0n = 5Kratochvil took 5 of 5
S5Kratochvil1Rek3n = 4Rek took 3 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away350%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKratochvilRekK − RBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match41.241.0+0.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKratochvilRekBasisWin rate · lifetime243 / 437 vs 149 / 25055.6%59.6%243 / 437 vs 149 / 250Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekKratochvil 2.00/Rek 1.73
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 12 · 14:30C. Kratochvil47109111162L. Rek52121199113
WSep 12 · 12:55C. Kratochvil4291111113L. Rek31117761
WJun 9 · 14:50C. Kratochvil47413811113L. Rek49111111882
LMay 16 · 11:55C. Kratochvil4041151192L. Rek46118115113
WApr 26 · 09:55C. Kratochvil331111113L. Rek237970
LApr 26 · 08:50C. Kratochvil3871131162L. Rek45116116113
C. Kratochvil10
WSep 20 · 12:55C. Kratochvil1.5712119213Z. Dusek2.2510611191LSep 20 · 11:55C. Kratochvil1.7311112952A. Jr2.00981111113LSep 19 · 22:35C. Kratochvil2.401111101142B. Budik1.50139128113WSep 19 · 20:55T. Rein2.759860C. Kratochvil1.401111113LSep 19 · 20:25B. Budik1.441110811113C. Kratochvil2.4031211882WSep 19 · 19:25C. Kratochvil2.381211153J. Dohnal1.53108140WSep 19 · 18:02J. Cousin1.6531030C. Kratochvil2.101112113LSep 19 · 16:55J. Cousin1.5011119113C. Kratochvil2.50741191LSep 19 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.4411711113C. Kratochvil2.63911951WSep 19 · 15:25C. Kratochvil1.73129118113A. Jr2.00101181192
L. Rek10
WSep 20 · 13:25A. Jr2.638111271L. Rek1.4411714113WSep 20 · 12:25L. Rek2.0011811133Z. Dusek1.737117111WSep 18 · 13:55L. Rek1.501211113A. Jr2.4510660WSep 18 · 12:50T. Jr3.0061161132L. Rek1.36115110113WSep 18 · 11:50L. Rek1.5711114113A. Jr2.25681181WSep 18 · 10:20P. Kubat2.0041111462L. Rek1.73118611113LSep 13 · 14:25L. Rek2.255540J. Sebl1.551111113LSep 13 · 13:25D. Zelezny1.731114113L. Rek2.0071280WSep 13 · 12:25L. Rek2.50111189113J. Sebl1.5088111152WSep 13 · 10:55L. Jirka1.7388191152L. Rek2.001111173113
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