TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Christian Kratochvil
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101169112119––
Zdenek Dusek
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:59 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeChristian Kratochvil to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingChristian Kratochvil above · Zdenek Dusek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 21-19
Point 99 set 4, 21-19 — our read held Christian Kratochvil at 58.3%
99 points played in total.
H2H Christian Kratochvil 5–4 Zdenek Dusek Zdenek Dusek has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:59What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kratochvil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kratochvil 1433 vs Dusek 1326
Kratochvil
Correct
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kratochvil 20% vs Dusek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kratochvil 40% vs Dusek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kratochvil -3 · Dusek -2
Kratochvil
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kratochvil) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dusek form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKratochvil 1.57 / Dusek 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Kratochvil)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13161777
Kratochvil1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 63 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it100% 33 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it85% 49 of 58
Dusek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 48 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back22% 14 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKratochvil5wins
AwayDusek4wins
1 of 9 to a deciderKratochvil leads 5–4, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKratochvil100%5 of 5
AwayDusek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kratochvil5Dusek4n = 9Kratochvil took 5 of 9
S2Kratochvil5Dusek4n = 9Kratochvil took 5 of 9
S3Kratochvil6Dusek3n = 9Kratochvil took 6 of 9
S4Kratochvil3Dusek2n = 5Kratochvil took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricKratochvilDusekK − DBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match36.032.9+3.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKratochvilDusekBasisWin rate · lifetime243 / 439 vs 191 / 46755.4%40.9%243 / 439 vs 191 / 467Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KratochvilKratochvil 1.57/Dusek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Kratochvil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kratochvil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LJul 29 · 21:59C. Kratochvil2459100Z. Dusek341111123
LJul 29 · 19:55C. Kratochvil30411961Z. Dusek3911611113
WJul 20 · 21:25C. Kratochvil3911116113Z. Dusek35881181
WJul 13 · 19:20C. Kratochvil351113113Z. Dusek2561180
LMar 22 · 20:25C. Kratochvil47129111142Z. Dusek51141178113
WSep 14 · 08:50C. Kratochvil4211911113Z. Dusek29511671
WSep 13 · 19:20C. Kratochvil331111113Z. Dusek197570
WAug 5 · 16:40C. Kratochvil331111113Z. Dusek238960
LApr 12 · 08:50C. Kratochvil41101011101Z. Dusek4112125123
C. Kratochvil10
LSep 20 · 13:59C. Kratochvil1.52117151182Z. Dusek2.35511179113LSep 20 · 11:55C. Kratochvil1.7311112952A. Jr2.00981111113LSep 20 · 10:55C. Kratochvil2.0061112742L. Rek1.731191011113LSep 19 · 22:35C. Kratochvil2.401111101142B. Budik1.50139128113WSep 19 · 20:55T. Rein2.759860C. Kratochvil1.401111113LSep 19 · 20:25B. Budik1.441110811113C. Kratochvil2.4031211882WSep 19 · 19:25C. Kratochvil2.381211153J. Dohnal1.53108140WSep 19 · 18:02J. Cousin1.6531030C. Kratochvil2.101112113LSep 19 · 16:55J. Cousin1.5011119113C. Kratochvil2.50741191LSep 19 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.4411711113C. Kratochvil2.63911951
Z. Dusek10
WSep 20 · 13:59C. Kratochvil1.52117151182Z. Dusek2.35511179113LSep 20 · 12:25L. Rek2.0011811133Z. Dusek1.737117111LSep 20 · 11:25Z. Dusek1.839550A. Jr1.831111113WSep 13 · 13:25M. Nemec2.109350Z. Dusek1.671111113LSep 13 · 12:50Z. Dusek1.837111091P. Cibik1.8311812113LSep 13 · 11:20M. Nemec2.5091111113Z. Dusek1.50115891LSep 13 · 10:50R. Zeman1.731511123Z. Dusek2.00138100LSep 9 · 17:50Z. Dusek1.83111011662P. Cibik1.83812911113WSep 9 · 16:50Z. Dusek1.8351111113P. Cibik1.83118691WSep 9 · 15:20S. Matousch1.8082131142Z. Dusek1.911111119113
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