TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ales Brandtl Jr
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111171214711––
Lukas Dominik Rek
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:58 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeLukas Dominik Rek to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Brandtl Jr above · Lukas Dominik Rek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 81 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Lukas Dominik Rek at 59.4%
81 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Jr 6–8 Lukas Dominik Rek Ales Brandtl Jr has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:58What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Rek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Rek
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1436 vs Rek 1554
Rek
Correct
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 80% vs Rek 100%
Rek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 60% vs Rek 80%
Rek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +2 · Rek +6
Rek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Rek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.63 / Rek 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Rek)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13161776
Jr2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 73 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back27% 30 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 63
Rek1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 68 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it76% 50 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr4wins
AwayRek6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderRek leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr66.7%2 of 3
AwayRek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr3Rek7n = 10Rek took 7 of 10
S2Jr3Rek7n = 10Rek took 7 of 10
S3Jr7Rek3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S4Jr2Rek4n = 6Rek took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrRekJ − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.434.0−1.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrRekBasisWin rate · lifetime252 / 538 vs 151 / 25246.8%59.9%252 / 538 vs 151 / 252Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekJr 2.63/Rek 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 13:55A. Jr2210660L. Rek341211113
LSep 18 · 11:50A. Jr33681181L. Rek3711114113
LSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr217680L. Rek331111113
WSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr521181111113L. Rek4313115772
WSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr331111113L. Rek238780
LAug 31 · 07:25A. Jr321181031L. Rek4061112113
WAug 9 · 21:55A. Jr331111113L. Rek218580
LAug 9 · 19:25A. Jr32961161L. Rek4111118113
WJun 26 · 16:55A. Jr4181111113L. Rek33116881
LMay 15 · 22:30A. Jr25721151L. Rek3511112113
A. Jr10
LSep 20 · 14:30L. Rek1.401111113A. Jr2.807780WSep 20 · 11:55C. Kratochvil1.7311112952A. Jr2.00981111113WSep 20 · 11:25Z. Dusek1.839550A. Jr1.831111113LSep 19 · 18:30A. Jr2.105111191V. Koutnik1.6511138113WSep 19 · 17:25A. Jr2.2511116113V. Koutnik1.57741151WSep 19 · 15:55J. Cousin1.4451113972A. Jr2.631191111113LSep 19 · 15:25C. Kratochvil1.73129118113A. Jr2.00101181192LSep 18 · 13:55L. Rek1.501211113A. Jr2.4510660WSep 18 · 12:20P. Kubat2.6310820A. Jr1.441211113LSep 18 · 11:50L. Rek1.5711114113A. Jr2.25681181
L. Rek10
WSep 20 · 14:30L. Rek1.401111113A. Jr2.807780WSep 20 · 12:25L. Rek2.0011811133Z. Dusek1.737117111WSep 20 · 10:55C. Kratochvil2.0061112742L. Rek1.731191011113WSep 18 · 13:55L. Rek1.501211113A. Jr2.4510660WSep 18 · 12:50T. Jr3.0061161132L. Rek1.36115110113WSep 18 · 11:50L. Rek1.5711114113A. Jr2.25681181WSep 18 · 10:20P. Kubat2.0041111462L. Rek1.73118611113LSep 13 · 14:25L. Rek2.255540J. Sebl1.551111113LSep 13 · 13:25D. Zelezny1.731114113L. Rek2.0071280WSep 13 · 12:25L. Rek2.50111189113J. Sebl1.5088111152
Upcoming Matches
A. Jr
L. Rek
Nothing scheduled
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