TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ondrej Chadima
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411115117811117
Jakub Nemecek Snr
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Chadima to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Chadima above · Jakub Nemecek Snr below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 86 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Ondrej Chadima at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Chadima 5–2 Jakub Nemecek Snr Jakub Nemecek Snr has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:42What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Snr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Chadima
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chadima 1513 vs Snr 1489
Chadima
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chadima 20% vs Snr 60%
Snr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chadima 40% vs Snr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chadima -2 · Snr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chadima)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chadima form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChadima 2.00 / Snr 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chadima)+7.7pp
Setka Cup · #13161345
Chadima2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Sep 12) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 51 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Snr1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite50% won 5 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it57% 4 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeChadima5wins
AwaySnr2wins
2 of 7 to a deciderChadima leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChadima100%4 of 4
AwaySnr66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chadima4Snr3n = 7Chadima took 4 of 7
S2Chadima4Snr3n = 7Chadima took 4 of 7
S3Chadima2Snr4n = 6Snr took 4 of 6
S4Chadima2Snr2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricChadimaSnrC − SBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match38.038.00.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChadimaSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 589 vs 59 / 14250.8%41.6%299 / 589 vs 59 / 142Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChadimaChadima 2.00/Snr 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chadima · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chadima won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LMar 1 · 14:09O. Chadima34781271J. Snr43111110113
WFeb 1 · 12:15O. Chadima521191110113J. Snr4281151262
WDec 29 · 12:00O. Chadima4411139113J. Snr346111161
LDec 13 · 12:30O. Chadima228950J. Snr331111113
O. Chadima10
LSep 20 · 10:30O. Chadima1.5731011111F. Kubos2.2511125133LSep 12 · 16:16L. Stoces1.951117113O. Chadima1.7531570LSep 12 · 15:15O. Chadima1.8312460V. Herrmann1.831411113WSep 12 · 14:15O. Chadima2.10111111113L. Stoces1.67139681LSep 10 · 20:20P. Provaznik—7121111113O. Chadima—11148892LSep 10 · 19:15O. Chadima2.50126361P. Provaznik1.50101111113WSep 10 · 18:15O. Chadima1.91817911123V. Herrmann1.801115119102LSep 10 · 17:15O. Chadima2.0012991162Z. Kuksa1.731011119113WSep 5 · 21:00D. Brichacek1.22131111982O. Chadima4.00155211113LSep 5 · 19:30T. Hanke1.73117116113O. Chadima2.0071181172
J. Snr10
WSep 18 · 20:44J. Botka2.007811101J. Snr1.7311114123LSep 18 · 19:30J. Snr1.53111111572L. Hendrych2.38891311113WSep 18 · 18:30J. Snr1.7311511113J. Botka2.00811871LSep 18 · 17:30J. Snr1.7310480F. Kubos2.001211113WSep 13 · 16:23J. Snr2.20891111113P. Maly1.6111119672LSep 13 · 15:45D. Brichacek1.40611117113J. Snr2.7511561162LSep 13 · 14:45T. Hybl1.5091111123J. Snr2.501168101LSep 13 · 13:15P. Maly1.6115117113J. Snr2.201361191WSep 11 · 20:38V. Herrmann1.5385111262J. Snr2.381111610113LSep 11 · 19:30L. Krasl1.9121511123J. Snr1.8011135101
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