TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13158938
Played Sep 19Finished
Oleksandra Ivchenko
Home
1.22
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111210311511––
Olena Bondareva
Away
4.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:16 and never touched — 82.9% is still 82.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandra Ivchenko to win
82.9%
82.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandra Ivchenko above · Olena Bondareva below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 67 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Oleksandra Ivchenko at 82.9%
67 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandra Ivchenko 45–10 Olena Bondareva Olena Bondareva has won 10 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:16What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Ivchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-10 in 55
Ivchenko
Wrong
gap of 35 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ivchenko 1612 vs Bondareva 1428
Ivchenko
Wrong
both rated, 184 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ivchenko 60% vs Bondareva 40%
Ivchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ivchenko 50% vs Bondareva 30%
Ivchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ivchenko +1 · Bondareva +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Ivchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 83% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondareva form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIvchenko 1.22 / Bondareva 4.00
Signal prob.80% / 20%
Edge (Ivchenko)+3.5pp
Setka Cup Women · #13158938
Ivchenko1.22
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 115 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it94% 59 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it78% 80 of 102
Bondareva4.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog25% won 24 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIvchenko9wins
AwayBondareva1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderIvchenko leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIvchenko100%5 of 5
AwayBondareva20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ivchenko5Bondareva5n = 10split evenly
S2Ivchenko7Bondareva3n = 10Ivchenko took 7 of 10
S3Ivchenko7Bondareva3n = 10Ivchenko took 7 of 10
S4Ivchenko5Bondareva3n = 8Ivchenko took 5 of 8
S5Ivchenko4Bondareva0n = 4Ivchenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricIvchenkoBondarevaI − BBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.436.0+6.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIvchenkoBondarevaBasisWin rate · lifetime332 / 545 vs 115 / 29160.9%39.5%332 / 545 vs 115 / 291Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.735.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvchenkoIvchenko 1.22/Bondareva 4.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
80.1%
Ivchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bondareva won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 19:05O. Ivchenko3831113113O. Bondareva381171191
WAug 29 · 14:05O. Ivchenko43101111113O. Bondareva33127591
WJul 10 · 13:35O. Ivchenko46116117113O. Bondareva4171181142
LJun 28 · 17:35O. Ivchenko32811581O. Bondareva4111811113
WJun 26 · 17:35O. Ivchenko52811119133O. Bondareva46118511112
WJun 20 · 13:35O. Ivchenko47116811113O. Bondareva3761111632
WJun 14 · 19:05O. Ivchenko341111123O. Bondareva2257100
WJun 7 · 16:05O. Ivchenko521181111113O. Bondareva4213117472
WMay 30 · 15:35O. Ivchenko46131111113O. Bondareva351131381
WMay 15 · 16:05O. Ivchenko341111123O. Bondareva2587100
O. Ivchenko10
WSep 19 · 17:35A. Lapa2.75113741O. Ivchenko1.4071111113LSep 19 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.4081111113O. Ivchenko2.75119461WSep 19 · 14:35O. Ivchenko1.831111123V. Shevchuk1.8378100WSep 19 · 13:35A. Volgina1.834990O. Ivchenko1.831111113LSep 12 · 19:35O. Ivchenko1.83910111142M. Gordeets1.83111274113WSep 12 · 17:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.00981461O. Ivchenko1.3611111262LSep 12 · 15:35A. Gorchakova2.75113119123O. Ivchenko1.40811511102LSep 12 · 14:35O. Ivchenko1.8091181172V. Shevchuk1.9111611783WSep 12 · 13:35A. Volgina1.91143791O. Ivchenko1.80121111113WSep 6 · 19:05O. Ivchenko1.2231113113O. Bondareva4.001171191
O. Bondareva10
WSep 19 · 18:05O. Bondareva3.251211113V. Shevchuk1.3310940WSep 19 · 16:05A. Volgina1.531110841O. Bondareva2.3891211113LSep 19 · 14:05K. Bondarenko1.28611812113O. Bondareva3.50115111072LSep 19 · 13:05A. Lapa1.3312311113O. Bondareva3.251011741LSep 6 · 19:05O. Ivchenko1.2231113113O. Bondareva4.001171191LSep 6 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.221111113O. Bondareva4.0067100LSep 6 · 16:35A. Gorchakova1.281112103O. Bondareva3.5071070WSep 6 · 14:35V. Shevchuk1.3011116612O. Bondareva3.4085111123LAug 29 · 18:35O. Bondareva3.251166101K. Bondarenko1.3391111102LAug 29 · 14:05O. Bondareva4.00127591O. Ivchenko1.22101111113
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