TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155491
Played Sep 19Finished
Yaroslav Makovka
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
161415137111012118
Yaroslav Kovshun
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:59 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Makovka above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 117 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 63.7%
117 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Makovka 11–14 Yaroslav Kovshun Yaroslav Makovka has won 11 of their 25 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:59What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kovshun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-14 in 25
Kovshun
Wrong
gap of 3 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Makovka 1536 vs Kovshun 1584
Kovshun
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Makovka 80% vs Kovshun 40%
Makovka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Makovka 60% vs Kovshun 30%
Makovka
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Makovka +1 · Kovshun -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kovshun) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovshun form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakovka 2.25 / Kovshun 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kovshun)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13155491
Makovka2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog34% won 44 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 55
Kovshun1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite61% won 98 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it81% 70 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMakovka5wins
AwayKovshun5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakovka100%3 of 3
AwayKovshun71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makovka3Kovshun7n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S2Makovka5Kovshun5n = 10split evenly
S3Makovka1Kovshun8n = 9Kovshun took 8 of 9
S4Makovka5Kovshun0n = 5Makovka took 5 of 5
S5Makovka2Kovshun1n = 3Makovka took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMakovkaKovshunM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.038.6−1.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakovkaKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 377 vs 339 / 63239.8%53.6%150 / 377 vs 339 / 632Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunMakovka 2.25/Kovshun 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Makovka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 2 · 11:05Y. Makovka203980Y. Kovshun331111113
WJul 12 · 11:30Y. Makovka47122711153Y. Kovshun501011115132
WJun 14 · 04:30Y. Makovka4411119133Y. Kovshun357611111
WMay 23 · 06:35Y. Makovka48911611113Y. Kovshun4011411592
LJan 11 · 06:00Y. Makovka48121181162Y. Kovshun49146117113
LJan 4 · 11:00Y. Makovka3199130Y. Kovshun371111153
LDec 14 · 08:30Y. Makovka228590Y. Kovshun331111113
WNov 29 · 15:40Y. Makovka3611113113Y. Kovshun32661191
Y. Makovka10
WSep 19 · 10:05I. Efimenko1.44614761Y. Makovka2.63111211113LSep 19 · 08:05Y. Volkov1.50871611113Y. Makovka2.50111114492WSep 19 · 07:05Y. Makovka2.0011811113V. Kryvenko1.73611981WSep 19 · 06:05A. Kotiash2.63811731Y. Makovka1.4411911113WSep 16 · 10:35I. Fashchevskyi2.2071151242Y. Makovka1.611121110113WSep 16 · 09:35Y. Makovka2.751111163I. Pytsko1.4059140WSep 16 · 08:35Y. Makovka2.5011811113O. Storozhenko1.50911751LSep 16 · 07:05Y. Makovka2.509980Y. Tebenko1.501111113LSep 16 · 05:05Y. Makovka2.751181091D. Maltsev1.4041112113LSep 15 · 18:05Y. Makovka2.004660D. Maltsev1.731111113
Y. Kovshun10
LSep 19 · 10:35Y. Kovshun2.257101191V. Kryvenko1.5711127113LSep 19 · 08:35A. Kotiash2.2011116113Y. Kovshun1.61961141WSep 19 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.809660Y. Kovshun1.911111113WSep 19 · 05:35I. Efimenko1.44411771Y. Kovshun2.6311811113LSep 18 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.7311119123Y. Kovshun2.009711101LSep 18 · 09:30Y. Kovshun1.9110560S. Kyienko1.801211113WSep 18 · 08:30Y. Kovshun1.679111115113O. Karpenko2.1011971772LSep 18 · 07:00Y. Kovshun1.337640V. Bilobrov3.251111113LSep 18 · 05:00Y. Kovshun1.4411570A. Troyan2.631311113LSep 15 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.61681121O. Karpenko2.2011118113
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