TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13154992
Played Sep 19Finished
Dmytro Palii
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 2
Set by set
12108116111010––
Oleksandr Sydorchuk
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:21 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeDmytro Palii to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Palii above · Oleksandr Sydorchuk below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 10-10
Point 78 set 4, 10-10 — our read held Dmytro Palii at 57.7%
78 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Palii 3–1 Oleksandr Sydorchuk Oleksandr Sydorchuk has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:21What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Palii
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Palii
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Palii 1558 vs Sydorchuk 1497
Palii
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Palii 80% vs Sydorchuk 20%
Palii
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Palii 70% vs Sydorchuk 50%
Palii
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Palii +2 · Sydorchuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Palii) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sydorchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPalii 1.61 / Sydorchuk 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Palii)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13154992
Palii1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite41% won 9 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it55% 6 of 11
Sydorchuk2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 34 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back20% 11 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePalii3wins
AwaySydorchuk1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderPalii leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Palii2Sydorchuk2n = 4split evenly
S2Palii2Sydorchuk2n = 4split evenly
S3Palii4Sydorchuk0n = 4Palii took 4 of 4
S4Palii1Sydorchuk2n = 3Sydorchuk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricPaliiSydorchukP − SBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match41.837.5+4.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPaliiSydorchukBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 188 vs 161 / 30458%53%109 / 188 vs 161 / 304Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PaliiPalii 1.61/Sydorchuk 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Palii · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–2
Sydorchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 18 · 23:15D. Palii52149115133O. Sydorchuk541211911112
LSep 10 · 20:45D. Palii408131181O. Sydorchuk4211155113
WFeb 8 · 05:55D. Palii331111113O. Sydorchuk248790
WFeb 7 · 13:55D. Palii4291111113O. Sydorchuk30119551
D. Palii10
LSep 19 · 15:55D. Palii1.83211501M. Slozka1.8311611103WSep 19 · 12:25D. Palii2.38101111113T. Gil1.53128891WSep 19 · 01:22M. Slozka1.281191371D. Palii3.5041115113LSep 19 · 24:15D. Palii2.00122881M. Slozka1.73101111113WSep 18 · 23:15O. Sydorchuk2.201211911112D. Palii1.61149115133WSep 18 · 22:15S. Prus2.101141061D. Palii1.6751112113WSep 18 · 20:45V. Korobko1.7313119141D. Palii2.0015711163LSep 12 · 10:25D. Palii1.57121165132S. Prus2.251081111153LSep 12 · 08:55D. Palii1.67111110882V. Kuzmych2.10371211113WSep 12 · 07:25D. Palii1.8351112113D. Maltsev1.831131041
O. Sydorchuk10
WSep 19 · 15:25O. Sydorchuk3.00511113113T. Gil1.3611711132WSep 19 · 12:55O. Sydorchuk1.8311118123I. Kvak1.834411101LSep 19 · 24:45S. Prus1.911212113O. Sydorchuk1.80101070LSep 18 · 23:15O. Sydorchuk2.201211911112D. Palii1.61149115133LSep 18 · 21:45O. Sydorchuk1.91711412112V. Korobko1.801181110133LSep 18 · 20:15O. Sydorchuk2.2573100M. Slozka1.571111123WSep 11 · 02:15M. Slozka1.441111101142O. Sydorchuk2.63137125113WSep 11 · 01:15O. Sydorchuk2.101615117113I. Fashchevskyi1.67141761192LSep 11 · 24:15O. Sydorchuk2.639030T. Gil1.441111113WSep 10 · 22:45O. Sydorchuk2.00101111123S. Prus1.731299101
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