TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13154145
Played Sep 19Finished
Michal Cabis
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
115611811611––
Matyas Navedla
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:44 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Cabis to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Cabis above · Matyas Navedla below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 69 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Michal Cabis at 62.1%
69 points played in total.
H2H Michal Cabis 37–25 Matyas Navedla Matyas Navedla has won 25 of their 62 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Cabis beat Navedla 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:44What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Cabis
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-25 in 62
Cabis
Wrong
gap of 12 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cabis 1814 vs Navedla 1648
Cabis
Wrong
both rated, 166 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cabis 20% vs Navedla 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cabis 30% vs Navedla 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cabis -2 · Navedla -3
Navedla
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Cabis) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Navedla form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCabis 1.44 / Navedla 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Cabis)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13154145
Cabis1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 115 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it93% 55 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it76% 74 of 98
Navedla2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 129 of 305
Down 0–1, comes back25% 37 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back11% 8 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCabis9wins
AwayNavedla1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCabis leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCabis100%4 of 4
AwayNavedla16.7%1 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cabis4Navedla6n = 10Navedla took 6 of 10
S2Cabis7Navedla3n = 10Cabis took 7 of 10
S3Cabis8Navedla2n = 10Cabis took 8 of 10
S4Cabis6Navedla2n = 8Cabis took 6 of 8
S5Cabis3Navedla0n = 3Cabis took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCabisNavedlaC − NBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.034.3+7.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCabisNavedlaBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 707 vs 367 / 77552.2%47.4%369 / 707 vs 367 / 775Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CabisCabis 1.44/Navedla 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Cabis · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Navedla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 17:00M. Cabis4281111123M. Navedla291117101
WSep 19 · 14:00M. Cabis331111113M. Navedla168440
WJul 30 · 06:00M. Cabis4171111123M. Navedla341167101
WJul 20 · 20:30M. Cabis44111111113M. Navedla35813861
WJul 19 · 20:58M. Cabis51911911113M. Navedla4511911862
WJul 19 · 20:30M. Cabis48691111113M. Navedla3911118632
WJul 4 · 21:30M. Cabis4611129143M. Navedla4291011121
LJul 4 · 20:30M. Cabis33851191M. Navedla4111118113
WMay 7 · 12:30M. Cabis331111113M. Navedla185760
WMay 6 · 12:30M. Cabis49911117113M. Navedla4411941192
M. Cabis10
LSep 19 · 20:00M. Vavrecka2.1011117113M. Cabis1.67981181LSep 19 · 19:00P. Wawrosz2.1013118113M. Cabis1.671191161WSep 19 · 17:00M. Cabis1.7381111123M. Navedla2.001117101LSep 19 · 16:00M. Cabis1.806811101J. Pilch1.9111118123LSep 19 · 15:30D. Tomica1.73941111113M. Cabis2.0011116692WSep 19 · 14:00M. Cabis1.571111113M. Navedla2.258440LSep 14 · 17:00J. Szotkowski1.851111113M. Cabis1.806330LSep 14 · 16:00M. Biolek1.6111811123M. Cabis2.203116101LSep 14 · 15:00J. Dzida1.57111113113M. Cabis2.25791551LSep 14 · 14:30M. Cabis2.00751181J. Szotkowski1.7311119113
M. Navedla10
LSep 19 · 19:30M. Navedla2.3881211942M. Vavrecka1.531110911113LSep 19 · 17:00M. Cabis1.7381111123M. Navedla2.001117101LSep 19 · 16:30M. Navedla2.10118991D. Tomica1.6771111113LSep 19 · 15:00M. Navedla2.006116141J. Pilch1.7311611163LSep 19 · 14:00M. Cabis1.571111113M. Navedla2.258440WSep 16 · 21:00L. Prikasky2.007790M. Navedla1.731111113LSep 16 · 20:00M. Navedla1.9161171112P. Wawrosz1.80119113113LSep 16 · 19:30M. Vavrecka1.53781211143M. Navedla2.381111105122LSep 16 · 18:00M. Navedla1.671110711112L. Prikasky2.10812113133WSep 14 · 20:58M. Navedla1.73111111113L. Prikasky2.00931361
Upcoming Matches
M. Cabis
Nothing scheduled
M. Navedla
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