TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13153990
Played Sep 19Finished
Matyas Navedla
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111210119911411
Michal Vavrecka
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:14 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Vavrecka to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatyas Navedla above · Michal Vavrecka below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 96 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Michal Vavrecka at 62.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Navedla 15–21 Michal Vavrecka Matyas Navedla has won 15 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:14What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Vavrecka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-21 in 36
Vavrecka
Correct
gap of 6 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Navedla 1659 vs Vavrecka 1780
Vavrecka
Correct
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Navedla 20% vs Vavrecka 60%
Vavrecka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Navedla 30% vs Vavrecka 50%
Vavrecka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Navedla +1 · Vavrecka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Vavrecka) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Navedla form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNavedla 2.38 / Vavrecka 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Vavrecka)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13153990
Navedla2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 129 of 305
Down 0–1, comes back25% 37 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back11% 8 of 71
Vavrecka1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 139 of 274
Up 2–0, closes it87% 58 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it73% 103 of 141
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNavedla3wins
AwayVavrecka7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVavrecka leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNavedla50%2 of 4
AwayVavrecka83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Navedla4Vavrecka6n = 10Vavrecka took 6 of 10
S2Navedla6Vavrecka4n = 10Navedla took 6 of 10
S3Navedla4Vavrecka6n = 10Vavrecka took 6 of 10
S4Navedla3Vavrecka5n = 8Vavrecka took 5 of 8
S5Navedla1Vavrecka4n = 5Vavrecka took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNavedlaVavreckaN − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.141.5−1.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNavedlaVavreckaBasisWin rate · lifetime368 / 776 vs 992 / 196247.4%50.6%368 / 776 vs 992 / 1962Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavreckaNavedla 2.38/Vavrecka 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Vavrecka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vavrecka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 19:30M. Navedla491111105122M. Vavrecka52781211143
WSep 10 · 09:00M. Navedla4291111113M. Vavrecka25115451
WSep 10 · 06:00M. Navedla3811133113M. Vavrecka338111131
LSep 5 · 08:00M. Navedla541111117142M. Vavrecka49135411163
LAug 26 · 10:30M. Navedla229850M. Vavrecka331111113
LAug 23 · 18:30M. Navedla53616121182M. Vavrecka591118109113
LAug 23 · 14:30M. Navedla31861161M. Vavrecka4011117113
LAug 12 · 14:30M. Navedla163670M. Vavrecka331111113
WAug 12 · 06:30M. Navedla49111187123M. Vavrecka46591111102
LAug 11 · 06:30M. Navedla4711119882M. Vavrecka45661111113
M. Navedla10
LSep 19 · 20:30P. Wawrosz1.73118116113M. Navedla2.0081171182WSep 19 · 18:30M. Cabis1.44116861M. Navedla2.6351111113LSep 19 · 17:00M. Cabis1.7381111123M. Navedla2.001117101LSep 19 · 16:30M. Navedla2.10118991D. Tomica1.6771111113LSep 19 · 15:00M. Navedla2.006116141J. Pilch1.7311611163LSep 19 · 14:00M. Cabis1.571111113M. Navedla2.258440WSep 16 · 21:00L. Prikasky2.007790M. Navedla1.731111113LSep 16 · 20:00M. Navedla1.9161171112P. Wawrosz1.80119113113LSep 16 · 19:30M. Vavrecka1.53781211143M. Navedla2.381111105122LSep 16 · 18:00M. Navedla1.671110711112L. Prikasky2.10812113133
M. Vavrecka10
WSep 19 · 20:00M. Vavrecka2.1011117113M. Cabis1.67981181WSep 19 · 18:00M. Vavrecka1.80611411113P. Wawrosz1.9111811792LSep 16 · 21:30P. Wawrosz1.7311118113M. Vavrecka2.00661171WSep 16 · 20:30L. Prikasky1.8335100M. Vavrecka1.831111123WSep 16 · 19:30M. Vavrecka1.53781211143M. Navedla2.381111105122LSep 16 · 18:30P. Wawrosz2.0012911133M. Vavrecka1.7310116111LSep 15 · 13:30D. Opanasiuk1.571110117113M. Vavrecka2.2581271192LSep 15 · 12:30R. Polasek1.7391111133M. Vavrecka2.001166111WSep 15 · 11:30M. Vavrecka2.5011911113J. Szotkowski1.50811991WSep 15 · 10:30D. Opanasiuk1.61911871M. Vavrecka2.2011611113
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